E48: Productivity & the AI Revolution
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The macro outlook for U.S. equities remains positive despite a soft labor market and potential volatility. Key risks include FOMC reconstitution, which could benefit gold, and lagged inflationary impacts from existing tariffs.
- Strategic positioning remains overweight U.S. equities. Unusually dovish Fed pricing suggests opportunities in U.S. curve steepeners and a weaker dollar, while FOMC reconstitution risk reinforces a positive narrative for gold.
- Near-term focus is on September market volatility and the emerging inflationary impact from tariffs. Longer-term, the FOMC reconstitution by February presents a key risk, with the market already pricing in dovishness.
Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Chief Economist Nathan Sheets discuss the findings of Citi’s recent Must C report on productivity and the AI revolution. Topics of discussion include the deployment of AI and its implications for productivity, what we can learn from previous technological adoptions, and if a critical mass of adoption is needed to drive productivity gains.
This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.
Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of Global Strategy and Macro Group, Citi
Rob Rowe is the Head of Citi Research’s Global Strategy & Macro Group (GSMG) as well as Head of Research for the Americas. GSMG unites all of Citi’s Economists with Fixed Income, FX, Equity and Commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world’s major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 35 years in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Company in 1989 working in investment banking, fixed income sales, and research. In addition to his overall responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team.
Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist, Citi
Nathan Sheets, Ph.D., is Global Chief Economist at Citi Research. In this role, Nathan leads Citi’s surveillance and forecasting of the global economy and directs the analysis of the firm’s economics team. He interacts closely with Citi’s major institutional clients and internal risk takers, and publishes research on cross-cutting themes shaping the global economy and financial markets. Most recently, Nathan was Chief Economist and a member of the senior investment team at PGIM Fixed Income. He also has served as Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury for International Affairs, representing the U.S. government on international economic issues. Previously, he held positions with Citigroup, as Global Head of International Economics, and with the Federal Reserve Board, as Director of the Division of International Finance and FOMC Economist. In addition, Nathan was a senior advisor to the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He joined Citi in October 2021.
