E92: Latin America: Room to Run, Risks to Watch
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Latin America's emerging market growth outlook is positive driven by geopolitical distance from conflict zones global trade reconfiguration rising commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar favoring EM investment flows
- Brazil's surprise re-election of President Lula marks a break from Latin America's rightward political super-cycle triggering sharp market volatility the real fell over 10% raising fiscal consolidation concerns for the region's largest economy
- El Niño poses a stagflationary risk across Andean economies in Q4 2026–Q1 2027 while small "hummingbird" economies Dominican Republic Guatemala Costa Rica and Panama remain standout credit and growth stories
Rob Rowe sits down with Ernesto Revilla and Luis Costa to discuss Latin America's prospects, with their conversation covering everything from elections and El Niño to monetary policy and trade. What should investors watch for as this optimistic growth story plays out?
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Robert Rowe, Head of Global Strategy & Macro Group, Citi
Rob Rowe is the Head of Citi Research’s Global Strategy & Macro Group (GSMG) as well as Head of Research for the Americas. GSMG unites all of Citi’s Economists with Fixed Income, FX, Equity and Commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world’s major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 35 years in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Company in 1989 working in investment banking, fixed income sales, and research. In addition to his overall responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team.
Ernesto Revilla, Head of Latin America Economics, Citi
Ernesto Revilla is the Head of Latin America Economics at Citi Research. He joined Citi in 2015 after a 12-year career at the Ministry of Finance in Mexico, where he was Chief of the Tax Policy Unit, and (from 2012 to 2015) Chief Economist. Earlier he was an Economist at the World Bank.
Luis Costa, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Citi
Luis Costa is the Global Head of EM Strategy at Citi Research and has been covering emerging markets, from both hard currency and local currency perspectives, for more than 20 years. Prior to joining Citi in 2010, Luis worked at Commerzbank and at ING Wholesale Banking in EM strategy positions. Luis has also worked on the buy side, first as a local markets proprietary trader at FleetBoston in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and later as a EM structured products trader at Delta National Bank in New York.
