For analysts, nothing is more satisfying than raising long-term forecasts that had once seemed aggressive, if not unattainable. That’s where we find ourselves today with U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds’ assets under management. Citi Research explores U.S. ETFs’ more mature growth phase in this new Must C report.
A new Citi Research report explores a severe geopolitical scenario involving a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and asks whether the global resilience we've seen in recent years could again prevail. While the resulting headwinds would be significant, our analysis suggests the global economy has more ways to absorb the shock than in past oil disruptions.
The Middle East conflict offers significant downside risks for the global economy. While Citi Research’s baseline 2026 growth forecast is only a bit lower than in February, more severe scenarios remain possible. Such outcomes could drag global growth below 2%, push headline inflation above 4%, and stoke recession risks.
