Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (June 5, 2025)

Consensus continue expecting another 50bps rate cut in the June meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, all participants expect that the next move in the monetary policy rate will be in June 2025. Out of 33 participants, 31 expect a 50bps cut while 2 analysts expect a 25bps cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 was kept at 7.50% from a fortnight ago, with estimates ranging from 6.75% to 8.00%. For Y/E 2026 the policy rate median expectation was reduced to 6.88% from 7.00% in the previous survey. 

Peso expectations was reduced for 2025 and 2026 y/e. The consensus projects the USDMXN at 20.50 for Y/E 2025, lower than 20.69 in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, it is at 20.90 from 21.00 in the previous survey.

For May, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.23% and 0.26%, respectively. For the full month of May, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.23%MoM, or 4.37%YoY, higher than April’s rate of 3.93% and higher than the survey a fortnight ago (-0.04%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.26%MoM in May, or 4.02%YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 3.93% and higher than the previous survey at 0.24MoM. For June, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.22%MoM and 0.25%MoM, respectively.

Inflation expectations increased for Y/E 2025, while for Y/E 2026 remained relatively stable. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 is now at 3.90%, higher compared to a fortnight ago at 3.85%, while for the core component, it was kept at 3.90% from the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline median expectation is at 3.75%, marginally lower than the last survey at 3.77%, while core inflation median estimation was kept at 3.70% compared to the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.

GDP growth median forecast was kept unchanged. The consensus estimates 2025 GDP growth at 0.1%, the same as the last survey, with estimations ranging from -0.8% to 0.7%. For 2026, it was kept at 1.5%, relative to the previous survey.

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