Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (September 5, 2025)

Consensus continues to expect a 25bps rate cut in the September meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, most participants expect that the next move in the monetary policy rate will be in September 2025, and all expect a 25bps cut as the next move. Out of 41 participants, 40 expect a cut in September 2025, while one expects it in 2026. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 was reduced to 7.25% from 7.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 7.50%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation was reduced to 6.50% from 6.75% in the previous survey, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 7.25%.

Peso expectations were reduced again for 2026. While the consensus is still projecting the USDMXN at 19.50 for Y/E 2025, for y/e 2026, it was reduced the expectation to 20.00 from 20.16 compared with the previous survey.

For August, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.06% and 0.20%, respectively. For the full month of August, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.06%MoM, 3.57% YoY, higher than July’s rate of 3.51%YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.28%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.20%MoM in August, or 4.21%YoY, slightly lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.23%YoY and lower than the previous survey at 0.30%MoM. For September, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.30%MoM and 0.28%MoM, respectively.

Inflation expectations remain stable. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 were kept at 4.00% as in the previous survey, while for the core component, it is kept at 4.10%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation was reduced marginally to 3.75% from 3.76%, while core inflation median estimation was kept at 3.70%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.

GDP growth median expectations increased for 2025. The consensus estimates 2025 GDP growth at 0.5%, from 0.4% in the previous survey, with estimations ranging from -0.1% to 0.8%. For 2026, it was kept at 1.4% compared to the previous survey.

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.