E33: U.S. Economy Vital Signs — Making Sense of Recent Data
Rob Rowe talks with Chief U.S. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst on his assessment of the U.S. economy following the April jobs report and May FOMC meeting. On the one hand, survey results (“soft” data) suggest that consumers are worried about job prospects and are reining in their spending, and that businesses might exercise restraint on hiring and investment. On the other hand, actual consumer spending and employment numbers (“hard” data) are robust, supporting the sustained narrative of a resilient economy. But as Andrew argues, the impact of the early-April tariffs, the DOGE layoffs, and a generally slowing economy have yet to be felt, and the soft data is signaling that some concern is warranted about where things might go from here.
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Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research and Head of Global Strategy and Macro Group, Citi
Rob Rowe is Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group (GSMG) as well as the U.S. Regional Director of Research. GSMG unites all of Citi's economists with fixed income, FX, equity and commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world's major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 30 years serving in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney Harris Upham & Company in 1989, working in investment banking, fixed income sales and research. In addition to his managerial responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team. He has written numerous articles and publications on fixed income and portfolio strategy.
Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief U.S. Economist, Citi
Andrew Hollenhorst leads Citi Research’s U.S. Economics Team and is responsible for Citi’s views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The team endeavors to tie its views on economic fundamentals to outcomes in financial markets.
Prior to his current role, he initiated Citi’s coverage of short-term interest rate markets and worked on cross-asset investment strategies. Andrew holds a PhD in economics from UCLA and a BA in math and economics from UC Berkeley.
