E58: Airline Volatility: Smooth Skies or Turbulence
HIGHLIGHTS
- The airline industry trends reveal a significant post-COVID travel market shift, segmenting into dominant "super majors" (Delta, American, United), legacy low-cost, and niche carriers, driven by evolving consumer travel behavior and industry consolidation
- These "super majors" maintain competitive advantage through capacity-constrained hubs, investment in technology, and robust loyalty programs, indicating a stable future against new entrants and influencing strategic airline M&A within the dynamic airline sector
- Holiday travel trends offer crucial insights into consumer spending on travel, with future airline mergers likely involving smaller acquisitions rather than major consolidations due to current regulatory landscapes
Anne Malone, North America Head of Equity Research at Citi, sits down with John Godyn, Citi's Head of Aerospace, Defense and Airlines, to discuss the state of the airline industry. Topics include the importance of holiday travel to airline financials, what makes an airline a "super major," and industry M&A prospects.
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Anne Malone, Head of North America and Latin America Equity Research
Anne Malone was named Head of North America and Latin America Equity Research 2022; promoted from Deputy Director, a role she held since 2018. Anne started at the firm in 1996 as an Analyst covering Medical Technology stocks. She has held several positions since then, in both Equity Research and Citi Asset Management, taking on roles that utilized her analytical, product, and people skills. Prior to joining Citi she was a Medical Device Analyst at Bear Stearns. Anne graduated from the St Leo College with a degree in Finance and a minor in Economics. She is a CFA Charterholder.
John Godyn Aerospace & Defense Managing Director
Author's experience: John Godyn is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Citi, responsible for Aerospace, Defense, and Airlines coverage. He joined Citi in 2025, after spending nine years on the buyside, most recently as a Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management, focusing on the industrials landscape at large. Prior to his career on the buyside, John was the lead Aerospace, Defense, and Airlines analyst at Morgan Stanley. During his time at Morgan Stanley, John was recognized as an II-ranked analyst each year he was a lead analyst.
