E59: The U.S. Economy's Future: Soft Landing ... or Hard Reality?
HIGHLIGHTS
- The 2026 global economic outlook points to a "Goldilocks" scenario with just-below-trend growth, moderating inflation and central bank rate cuts, navigating risks between a soft landing and a hard landing
- This forecast highlights a K-shaped economic recovery, where large, AI-adopting corporations and upper-income households are positioned to outperform smaller businesses and lower-income segments amid ongoing uncertainty
- Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue policy normalization with potential rate cuts, though the path of the labor market and the appointment of a new Fed Chair create uncertainties
Scott Chronert, Citi’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, sits down with Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets to discuss the 2026 economic outlook. Topics of discussion include the “Goldilocks” state of the U.S. economy, the effects of tariffs on inflation, the Fed’s path, and the ongoing debate about AI and economic productivity.
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Scott Chronert, U.S. Head Equity Strategy, Citi
Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research serving several roles, including US Equity Strategist, Global Head of ETF Strategy & Analysis, and US Small/Mid Cap strategy. Scott assumed the US Equity Strategy role at Citi in October 2021. He brings a fundamental approach to assess the US equity landscape. Regarding ETFs, Scott and his team have been at the forefront of sell-side, institutional grade, analysis of the ETF ecosystem since 2012. His product covers all facets of ETFs, including broader industry trends, flow analysis, stock and market impacts, complemented with positioning views covering most asset classes and geographies. His work on US Small/Mid Cap provides a blend of top-down and stock-specific insight. Scott also contributes to Citi’s global equity strategy product. Prior to joining Citi Research in 2010, Scott spent more than 25 years in Institutional Equity Sales and Management roles (mostly at Citi). Citi was named Global ETF Research Provider of the Year 2019 by ETFexpress. Scott is a graduate of Dartmouth College, AB degree 1978 and UCLA Graduate School of Management, MBA degree 1980.
Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist, Citi
Nathan Sheets, Ph.D., is Global Chief Economist at Citi Research. In this role, Nathan leads Citi’s surveillance and forecasting of the global economy and directs the analysis of the firm’s economics team. He interacts closely with Citi’s major institutional clients and internal risk takers, and publishes research on cross-cutting themes shaping the global economy and financial markets. Most recently, Nathan was Chief Economist and a member of the senior investment team at PGIM Fixed Income. He also has served as Under Secretary of the U.S. Treasury for International Affairs, representing the U.S. government on international economic issues. Previously, he held positions with Citigroup, as Global Head of International Economics, and with the Federal Reserve Board, as Director of the Division of International Finance and FOMC Economist. In addition, Nathan was a senior advisor to the U.S. Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund and a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He joined Citi in October 2021
