E91: El Niño: Rising Tides and Prices
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A historic "Super El Niño" event is underway marked by record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures that are triggering extreme and abnormal weather patterns across the globe impacting agricultural production and energy markets
- The severe climate event poses significant supply chain risks and price volatility for key agricultural commodities—notably sugar cocoa coffee and palm oil—as weather disruptions affect crop yields in critical growing regions
- This "Super El Niño" is expected to influence markets into early 2027 with a potential uptick in food price inflation anticipated toward the end of the year as the full impact on agricultural supply materializes
Rob Rowe sits down with Arkady Gevorkyan to discuss all things El Niño: what it is, how a range of agricultural commodities could be affected, and what investors ought to watch for as events unfold.
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Robert Rowe, Interim Global Head of Research, Citi
Rob Rowe is the Head of Citi Research’s Global Strategy & Macro Group (GSMG) as well as the Global Head of Citi Research. GSMG unites all of Citi’s Economists with Fixed Income, FX, Equity and Commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world’s major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 35 years in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Company in 1989 working in investment banking, fixed income sales, and research. In addition to his overall responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team. Rob is a graduate of Hartwick College with a BA in European History and the Theatre. He is also a graduate of the American Academy of Dramatic Arts.
Arkady Gevorkyan, Global Commodities Strategy, Citi
Arkady Gevorkyan is a Commodity Strategist at Citi Research in New York, where he oversees global energy markets. He covers a range of globally traded commodities (agriculture products and gold) and works on developing Citi’s house views on future price outlooks in the energy sector. Prior to joining Citi, Arkady was an Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Banking Surveillance Unit, where he conducted research on predictive forecasting models. Arkady also worked as a Quantitative Analyst in the Risk Modelling and Analytics team at Citi prior to joining the commodities group
