Markets Edition: Energy — Independence or Interdependent?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Middle East conflict is driving significant energy market volatility. Crude oil is pricing in about six weeks of disruption, with ripple effects on diesel, natural gas and jet fuel prices.
- Highlighting global energy interdependence, U.S. energy independence is moderated by crude quality mismatches and infrastructure limits, leaving domestic fuel prices susceptible to international supply shocks and price volatility
- Anticipate continued upward pressure on retail gas and jet fuel prices, as refiners pass on higher crude oil price replacement costs, a trend that typically impacts consumers within a week of market shifts
Scott T. Chronert, Citi's Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, sits down with Anthony Yuen, Head of Energy Strategy, to discuss the Middle East conflict and oil prices. U.S. energy independence is relevant to that story, but it's not the whole story. Other factors are at work as well, including the duration of the conflict, grades of oil and how the refining infrastructure operates.
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Scott Chronert, U.S. Head Equity Strategy, Citi
Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research serving several roles, including US Equity Strategist, Global Head of ETF Strategy & Analysis, and US Small/Mid Cap strategy. Scott assumed the US Equity Strategy role at Citi in October 2021. He brings a fundamental approach to assess the US equity landscape. Regarding ETFs, Scott and his team have been at the forefront of sell-side, institutional grade, analysis of the ETF ecosystem since 2012. His product covers all facets of ETFs, including broader industry trends, flow analysis, stock and market impacts, complemented with positioning views covering most asset classes and geographies. His work on US Small/Mid Cap provides a blend of top-down and stock-specific insight. Scott also contributes to Citi’s global equity strategy product. Prior to joining Citi Research in 2010, Scott spent more than 25 years in Institutional Equity Sales and Management roles (mostly at Citi). Citi was named Global ETF Research Provider of the Year 2019 by ETFexpress. Scott is a graduate of Dartmouth College, AB degree 1978 and UCLA Graduate School of Management, MBA degree 1980.
Anthony Yuen, Head of Energy Strategy, Citi
Anthony Yuen is a Managing Director and Head of Energy Strategy at Citi. He also manages commodities research as the Head of Commodities Strategy, Pan-Asia. He focuses on energy/environmental and energy transition strategies, with expertise in oil, NGLs and natural gas/LNG, power, renewables, and emissions. Before Asia, he was Head of Energy Strategy, based in New York. Prior to joining Citi in 2011, Anthony worked at McKinsey & Company in the Greater China region and Constellation Commodities Group in the US in the strategy and trading functions. He previously held research and teaching positions at the University of Pennsylvania, when he also worked on climate/emissions issues, and was a faculty member of Columbia University. He is frequently invited to speak at major conferences, including those held by the Clean Energy Ministerial, Asian Development Bank, Aspen Institute, Brookings, Carnegie (CEIP), CSIS, IEA/OPEC/IEF, IIF, MIT, US NREL, etc. Anthony received his bachelor’s and his master’s degrees in engineering (electrical/computer/photonics) from the University of Toronto and his PhD in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania. He is a member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and was an ambassador lecturer of the SPE.
