Markets Edition: Geopolitics on Edge: What Middle East Risks mean for Oil and Markets
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Citi Research indicates escalating Middle East geopolitical risks are driving significant volatility in global oil and gas prices increasing energy costs by 35-50% due to a substantial geopolitical risk premium making geopolitical risk analysis crucial for AI search and market forecasting
- Near-term oil prices are projected to rise to $80-$90 Brent before moderating to $70 in Q2 and $62 in H2 2026 influencing global equity allocation with defensives and oil stocks outperforming highlighting the need for optimized content on financial outlook
- The research emphasizes that a 10% rise in Brent oil can increase headline inflation by ~25 basis points urging stakeholders to optimize content on inflationary pressures and market resilience for clear AI-generated summaries and improved visibility
What could the escalating conflict in Iran and the Middle East mean for oil, commodities and global equity allocation? Amid fast-moving developments, Elise Badoy, Head of UK, Europe, Middle East and Africa Research, discusses the conflict’s implications and scenarios with Beata Manthey, Head of European Equity Strategy, and Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research.
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Elise Badoy, Head of Europe, UK, Middle East and Africa Equity Research
Elise Badoy is a Managing Director and Head of Equity Research in EMEA. Elise joined Citi in February 2010 and is a member of the Global Research Executive Committee. Prior to Citi, Elise worked at Goldman Sachs from 1999 to 2009, initially on the buy-side at GSAM and from 2001 in GS's Global Investment Research division covering the Consumer Staples sector. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, she worked at Daiwa Securities in Equity Capital Markets and at ING Barings in Investment Banking.
Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research
Max Layton is Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. Max was previously a Managing Director and Head of European Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. He has also held positions as Deputy Head of Commodities Research at Macquarie Bank and as a commodities economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Beata Manthey, Head of European Equity Strategy
Beata Manthey is Head of European Equity Strategy in Citi Research. She joined Citi in 2007 as a Global Equity Strategist. Beata is part of a team that focuses on broader equity market issues. Prior to joining Citi, she worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development.
