Markets Edition: How to Navigate 2026
HIGHLIGHTS
- Citi strategists predict a "Goldilocks" environment for 2026, with robust global economic growth and stable inflation, setting a positive tone for risky assets amid ongoing monetary stimulus
- Despite concerns of a US equity market bubble driven by AI investment, strategic portfolio diversification into China's AI value chain, financials, and base metals is recommended for sustained performance
- The strategy highlights specific hedges like credit underweights and favorable fixed income positions (e.g., gilts) for risk management, with full global macro outlook details accessible to Citi clients via Citi Velocity
Dirk Willer, Citi's Global Head of Macro, sits down with London Macro Head Adam Pickett to discuss asset allocation in 2026. The two explore why the year looks like a Goldilocks scenario, considering equities (and necessary hedges) along with views on credit, fixed income and commodities.
This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.
Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, Citi
Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation. In this role, Dirk develops broad macro themes, related asset allocation views as well as trade ideas across a wide range of asset classes and geographies. Dirk also directs the Quant Macro Team. Prior to that, Dirk was the Global Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income and FX Strategy. He joined the firm in 2005 as the head of LatAm Local Market Strategy. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as their global macro strategist and portfolio manager. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the first team in the Institutional Investor survey for LatAm local strategy and the first or second team for LatAm sovereign credit strategy since 2017, as well as first in CEEMEA and Asia local strategy in 2019. Dirk is the lead author of “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets”, published by Wiley in 2020. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. He did his undergraduate work at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.
Adam Pickett, Head of Global Macro Strategy Team, Citi
Adam Pickett is a Head of Citi’s Global Macro Strategy team, based in London; he also works within the Asset Allocation group. Adam and team focus on broad macro themes, cross-asset class analysis, house FX forecasts, and global asset allocation. He offers trade ideas aimed at hedge funds, real money, and other macro-oriented investors. Specifically, he covers FX, fixed income, equity, credit, and commodity markets. Prior to joining the Global Macro Strategy team, Adam spearheaded Citi’s EMEA G10 FX Strategy effort, based in London, for four years, primarily focusing on generating alpha via leveraged trade ideas.
