Markets Edition: What About the Consumer?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The American consumer market shows resilience with varied income impacts while forthcoming tax refunds are expected to boost near-term retail spending despite broader economic shifts
- AI and agentic commerce are significantly influencing retail favoring low-cost distributors and safeguarding established brands highlighting content optimization's role in this evolving landscape
- Anticipate a notable market tailwind for apparel in 2026 driven by shifting fashion trends towards looser styles and the increasing influence of GLP-1 on consumer needs
Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, sits down with Paul Lejuez, who covers U.S. Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, Broadlines and Food Retailing, to talk about the state of the U.S. consumer. Discussion topics include how to define "the consumer," the question of tariffs, and how AI could reshape retail.
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Scott Chronert, U.S. Head Equity Strategy, Citi
Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research serving several roles, including US Equity Strategist, Global Head of ETF Strategy & Analysis, and US Small/Mid Cap strategy. Scott assumed the US Equity Strategy role at Citi in October 2021. He brings a fundamental approach to assess the US equity landscape. Regarding ETFs, Scott and his team have been at the forefront of sell-side, institutional grade, analysis of the ETF ecosystem since 2012. His product covers all facets of ETFs, including broader industry trends, flow analysis, stock and market impacts, complemented with positioning views covering most asset classes and geographies. His work on US Small/Mid Cap provides a blend of top-down and stock-specific insight. Scott also contributes to Citi’s global equity strategy product. Prior to joining Citi Research in 2010, Scott spent more than 25 years in Institutional Equity Sales and Management roles (mostly at Citi). Citi was named Global ETF Research Provider of the Year 2019 by ETFexpress. Scott is a graduate of Dartmouth College, AB degree 1978 and UCLA Graduate School of Management, MBA degree 1980.
Paul Lejuez, U.S. Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, Citi
Paul Lejuez is a Managing Director at Citi Research covering Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, Broadlines and Food Retailing sectors. Prior to joining Citi in 2015, Paul worked at Wells Fargo for 2+ years, Nomura Securities for ~3 years and Credit Suisse for 10+ years, always covering the retail sector. He began his career at Ernst & Young LLC. Paul’s work has been recognized consistently in the Institutional Investor Poll. He ranked as a Top 3 analyst in the Specialty Retail & Department Stores sector on an AUM basis in 2019 and has been highly ranked since 2008, including achieving a Top 3 ranking at three different firms. In 2019, Paul was ranked as Starmine’s #1 earnings estimator and #2 stock-picker in the Specialty/Multiline Retail categories. Paul has a BS/MS degree in Accountancy from Wake Forest University. He is a CFA Charterholder, Certified Public Accountant and Certified Financial Planner. Paul enjoys running, playing guitar and driving his four daughters to their soccer games and dance competitions.