Markets Edition: The Middle East Conflict: Stagflation Risk

Podcast  •  March 31, 2026
Research

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The Middle East conflict is reshaping the global economic outlook elevating stagflation risks with a projected 2.7% growth and over 3% inflation for 2026
  • Current restrictive interest rates and diminished household buffers differentiate this period from 2022 amplifying downside risks and underscoring the need for continuous market analysis
  • Equity markets, particularly in Europe face potential further downgrades as pre-crisis bullish sentiment unwinds emphasizing the critical need to monitor supply chain and inflation impacts

Beata Manthey, Citi's Head of European Equity Strategy, is joined by Senior Equity Strategist David Groman to discuss the Middle East conflict, explore how it's shifted the equity-markets landscape, and map out scenarios that investors should be thinking about.

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Beata Manthey is Head of European Equity Strategy in Citi Research. She joined Citi in 2007 as a Global Equity Strategist. Beata is part of a team that focuses on broader equity market issues. Prior to joining Citi, she worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development.

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David Groman is a Director on the Global Equity Strategy team at Citi Research. Prior to joining Citi in 2021, he served as a Financial Economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He has also worked as a cross-asset macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York.

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