Special Markets Edition: Boom or Bubble? The AI Debate
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Citi's top strategists are debating the AI-driven equity market, contrasting views of a valuation bubble against a fundamentally sound technology 'boom' with significant long-term growth potential and strong earnings.
- The debate highlights a crucial strategic crossroads for investors: either hedge against a potential market overshoot or embrace a structural bull case for equities driven by generational AI-powered productivity gains.
- The outlook hinges on a massive, underestimated AI capex cycle and the early stages of broad AI adoption. The key is monitoring the return on investment and how AI's use expands beyond tech enablers.
Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, and Scott Chronert, U.S. Head Equity Strategy, sit down with Heath Terry, Global Head for Technology and Communications Research, to debate whether AI is a boom or a bubble and what the endgame may be for companies and markets.
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Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, Citi
Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation. In this role, Dirk develops broad macro themes, related asset allocation views as well as trade ideas across a wide range of asset classes and geographies. Dirk also directs the Quant Macro Team. Prior to that, Dirk was the Global Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income and FX Strategy. He joined the firm in 2005 as the head of LatAm Local Market Strategy. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as their global macro strategist and portfolio manager. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the first team in the Institutional Investor survey for LatAm local strategy and the first or second team for LatAm sovereign credit strategy since 2017, as well as first in CEEMEA and Asia local strategy in 2019. Dirk is the lead author of “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets”, published by Wiley in 2020. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. He did his undergraduate work at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.
Scott Chronert, U.S. Head Equity Strategy, Citi
Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research serving several roles, including US Equity Strategist, Global Head of ETF Strategy & Analysis, and US Small/Mid Cap strategy. Scott assumed the US Equity Strategy role at Citi in October 2021. He brings a fundamental approach to assess the US equity landscape. Regarding ETFs, Scott and his team have been at the forefront of sell-side, institutional grade, analysis of the ETF ecosystem since 2012. His product covers all facets of ETFs, including broader industry trends, flow analysis, stock and market impacts, complemented with positioning views covering most asset classes and geographies. His work on US Small/Mid Cap provides a blend of top-down and stock-specific insight. Scott also contributes to Citi’s global equity strategy product. Prior to joining Citi Research in 2010, Scott spent more than 25 years in Institutional Equity Sales and Management roles (mostly at Citi). Citi was named Global ETF Research Provider of the Year 2019 by ETFexpress. Scott is a graduate of Dartmouth College, AB degree 1978 and UCLA Graduate School of Management, MBA degree 1980.
Heath Terry, Global Head for Technology and Communications Research, Citi
Heath Terry is the Global Sector Head for Technology & Communications Research at Citi Research. Prior to joining Citi in May 2025, Heath led the centralized research effort in TMT for Balyasny Asset Management and was a Managing Director at Third Point Ventures, leading its growth stage venture capital practice. Prior to that Heath worked for more than 20 years in equity research, most recently as the head of Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research’s Technology, Media and Telecom Group. While at Goldman Sachs Heath led research's working group on Artificial Intelligence and created the firm’s venture capital research practice. He is a Trustee for the Southern Environmental Law Center and Vice Chairman of The University of Alabama President’s Cabinet. Heath earned an MBA from Columbia Business School and a BS in Finance from the University of Alabama.
