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Executive Summary

Arthur Pineda

Igor Cesarec

Judy Zhang

Ashwin Shirvaikar

Jason B Bazinet

Graeme McDonald

Thomas A Singlehurst

Ronit Ghose

Jim Suva

Carl Benedikt Frey

Robert Garlick

James Ainley

Suzanne R Gyorgy

Martin Wilkie

Amit B Harchandani

Arthur Lai

Surendra Goyal

Nick Coulter

Alicia Yap

Paul Lejuez

Asiya Merchant

Aaron Guy

Tyler Radke

Nelson Cheung

Daniel Grosslight

Nicholas Jones

Michelle Ma

Lara Ouvaroff

James A Shuck

Sathish B Sivakumar

Amy Thompson

Joanne Wuensch

The Coming of the Post-Production Society Ever have that déjà vu feeling? Last year about this time, we published our Technology at Work v5.0 report and discussed how COVID-19 restrictions were being lifted and the end of ‘work from home’ was on the horizon. Apparently, that was just a practice run. This time it’s the real deal. Around the world, businesses are having robust conversations about how employees can safely return to the office. In some regions, restrictions are being lifted at the same speed at which they were implemented back in March 2020. But while we seem to be moving in a direction back to ‘normal’, and talking about returning to our pre-pandemic ways, in reality, things can’t just go back to the way they were. During the pandemic, working from home became a thing and the stigma around it disappeared. We were okay with losing our commutes and used those hours to work a little more. Our kids didn’t stop learning as education shifted from the classroom to the home. And the use of digital everything accelerated — shopping, groceries, doctor visits, payments, and entertainment. There are definitely things that were part of the ‘new normal’ during the pandemic that we’ll be happy to lose, but some of the changes are going to stick around. Working five days a week in the office seems a lot — surveys indicate three feels like a better number — and a winter snow day from school might become something only you remember. But importantly, working from home came with the realization that if a job isn’t place dependent and doesn’t need to be done in an office, it can also be done in a cheaper location offshore. Furloughed workers might find their jobs replaced by automation. And as the accelerated shift to digital becomes more permanent, jobs might disappear in brick-and-mortar entities like stores, gyms, and movie theaters In the report that follows, we look at how the COVID-19 pandemic may have pushed advanced economies into an era where not only manufacturing jobs get outsourced and automated, but service jobs do as well. This is a world where emerging markets no longer look to manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity, and instead use technological advances to attract offshore service jobs such as accounting and banking. The acceleration of digital during the pandemic may jump-start a new wave of automation, meaning the jobs of the future need to be ones that are sheltered from both automation and offshoring. As governments shift their fiscal spending from providing life preservers to providing fiscal stimulus, the focus is on creating jobs through the green and digital economies. Longer term, policies and stimulus need to focus on creating a competitive advantage in innovation and developing environments that foster interactions, social networks, and knowledge transfers Authors: Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey,James Ainley,Jason B Bazinet,Igor Cesarec,Nelson Cheung,Nick Coulter,Robert Garlick,Ronit Ghose, CFA,Surendra Goyal, CFA,Daniel Grosslight,Aaron Guy,Suzanne R Gyorgy,Amit B Harchandani,Nicholas Jones,Arthur Lai,Paul Lejuez, CFA, CPA,Michelle Ma, CFA,Graeme McDonald,Asiya Merchant, CFA,Lara Ouvaroff,Arthur Pineda,Tyler Radke,Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA,James A Shuck,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,Sathish B Sivakumar,Jim Suva, CPA,Amy Thompson,Martin Wilkie,Joanne Wuensch,Alicia Yap, CFA,Judy Zhang,

<h3>The Coming of the Post-Production Society</h3>
Ever have that d&eacute;j&agrave; vu feeling? Last year about this time, we published our <a style="text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/technology-at-work-v5-0/" data-link-source="tiny">Technology at Work v5.0</a> report and discussed how COVID-19 restrictions were being lifted and the end of &lsquo;work from home&rsquo; was on the horizon. Apparently, that was just a practice run. This time it&rsquo;s the real deal.
Around the world, businesses are having robust conversations about how employees can safely return to the office. In some regions, restrictions are being lifted at the same speed at which they were implemented back in March 2020. But while we seem to be moving in a direction back to &lsquo;normal&rsquo;, and talking about returning to our pre-pandemic ways, in reality, things can&rsquo;t just go back to the way they were. During the pandemic, working from home became a thing and the stigma around it disappeared. We were okay with losing our commutes and used those hours to work a little more. Our kids didn&rsquo;t stop learning as education shifted from the classroom to the home. And the use of digital everything accelerated &mdash; shopping, groceries, doctor visits, payments, and entertainment. There are definitely things that were part of the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; during the pandemic that we&rsquo;ll be happy to lose, but some of the changes are going to stick around. Working five days a week in the office seems a lot &mdash; surveys indicate three feels like a better number &mdash; and a winter snow day from school might become something only you remember. But importantly, working from home came with the realization that if a job isn&rsquo;t place dependent and doesn&rsquo;t need to be done in an office, it can also be done in a cheaper location offshore. Furloughed workers might find their jobs replaced by automation. And as the accelerated shift to digital becomes more permanent, jobs might disappear in brick-and-mortar entities like stores, gyms, and movie theaters In the report that follows, we look at how the COVID-19 pandemic may have pushed advanced economies into an era where not only manufacturing jobs get outsourced and automated, but service jobs do as well. This is a world where emerging markets no longer look to manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity, and instead use technological advances to attract offshore service jobs such as accounting and banking. The acceleration of digital during the pandemic may jump-start a new wave of automation, meaning the jobs of the future need to be ones that are sheltered from both automation and offshoring. As governments shift their fiscal spending from providing life preservers to providing fiscal stimulus, the focus is on creating jobs through the green and digital economies. Longer term, policies and stimulus need to focus on creating a competitive advantage in innovation and developing environments that foster interactions, social networks, and knowledge transfers Authors: Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey,James Ainley,Jason B Bazinet,Igor Cesarec,Nelson Cheung,Nick Coulter,Robert Garlick,Ronit Ghose, CFA,Surendra Goyal, CFA,Daniel Grosslight,Aaron Guy,Suzanne R Gyorgy,Amit B Harchandani,Nicholas Jones,Arthur Lai,Paul Lejuez, CFA, CPA,Michelle Ma, CFA,Graeme McDonald,Asiya Merchant, CFA,Lara Ouvaroff,Arthur Pineda,Tyler Radke,Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA,James A Shuck,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,Sathish B Sivakumar,Jim Suva, CPA,Amy Thompson,Martin Wilkie,Joanne Wuensch,Alicia Yap, CFA,Judy Zhang,

The Coming of the Post-Production Society

In this new GPS report, Technology at Work v6.0, the team looks at how digital acceleration during the pandemic could drive a shift in the economy from post-industrial to post-production due to increased automation and offshoring risk for the services sector, similar to what’s already happened in the manufacturing sector. We argue that governments and policymakers need to boost innovation and new job creation to offset production tasks that are offshored and automated away. The focus should be on skills that foster innovation and exploration to drive employment in areas focusing on the early stages of the technology lifecycle.

Technology at Work v6.0

Georgios Ierodiaconou

Michael Bilerman

Walter H Pritchard

Elizabeth Curmi

Nithin Pejaver

Chinchih Chen

Mark A Manduca

Jenny Ping

Monique Pollard

Ami Galla

As lockdowns are slowly lifted and the threat of COVID-19 lessens, questions are being asked around what the work environment will look like post-COVID-19. For some, there’s no question about returning to the workplace. But the workplace is going to be very different in an environment of social distancing. For others, working from home was unexpectedly refreshing and enhanced productivity. In fact, Gallup found three in five U.S. workers who have been doing their jobs from home during the COVID-19 pandemic would prefer to continue to work remotely as much as possible, once restrictions have lifted. The COVID-19 pandemic was able to accelerate the shift to remote working as the digital world is finally at a stage where it can support technology like virtual meetings. The digital revolution enabled telework and the upcoming roll out of 5G will drive telerobotics and augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), leading to increased automation globally Improved virtual and telepresence could also shift the development path for emerging markets, away from a manufacturing-led growth model (like China) more to a service-led growth model (like India). But the sudden shift to remote work has also highlighted inequalities in the workforce. Jobs which can be done remotely tend to be higher paying jobs and those that require physical presence tend to be lower paying/lower education jobs. This means the pandemic lockdowns have disproportionately affected incomes for those in lower paying jobs which couldn’t switch to remote work. The biggest takeaway from the report is we need to innovate to increase our resilience to further disruptions and avoid the societal disruptions caused by the recent lockdowns. The report also focuses on trends we see accelerating due to the COVID-19 crisis. The adoption of education technology (edtech) should get a boost as the pandemic is likely to shift attitudes towards increasing edtech spend with schools needing to teach remotely. The value of connectivity has increased during the pandemic and telecom network infrastructure has enabled functions such as eHealth and Big Data & Monitoring. And the rapid shift to work from home has been a catalyst for next-generation software focused on productivity & collaboration. Business travel is likely to decline as virtual meetings replace face-to-face ones and in turn adversely affect the airline and travel industry. As corporates rethink office space, we look at the debate over the role of cities and real estate. Finally, a silver lining from remote working — air pollution has declined and we look at the positive environmental effects of working from home one day a week. Most importantly, we hope you and your families remain safe and healthy throughout this difficult time.Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Chinchih Chen,James Ainley,Michael Bilerman,Elizabeth Curmi, PhD.,Ami Galla,Robert Garlick,Aaron Guy,Georgios Ierodiaconou,Mark A Manduca,Nithin Pejaver, CFA,Jenny Ping,Monique Pollard,Walter H Pritchard, CFA,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,

As lockdowns are slowly lifted and the threat of COVID-19 lessens, questions are being asked around what the work environment will look like post-COVID-19. For some, there&rsquo;s no question about returning to the workplace. But the workplace is going to be very different in an environment of social distancing. For others, working from home was unexpectedly refreshing and enhanced productivity. In fact, Gallup found three in five U.S. workers who have been doing their jobs from home during the COVID-19 pandemic would prefer to continue to work remotely as much as possible, once restrictions have lifted. The COVID-19 pandemic was able to accelerate the shift to remote working as the digital world is finally at a stage where it can support technology like virtual meetings. The digital revolution enabled telework and the upcoming roll out of 5G will drive telerobotics and augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), leading to increased automation globally Improved virtual and telepresence could also shift the development path for emerging markets, away from a manufacturing-led growth model (like China) more to a service-led growth model (like India). But the sudden shift to remote work has also highlighted inequalities in the workforce. Jobs which can be done remotely tend to be higher paying jobs and those that require physical presence tend to be lower paying/lower education jobs. This means the pandemic lockdowns have disproportionately affected incomes for those in lower paying jobs which couldn&rsquo;t switch to remote work. The biggest takeaway from the report is we need to innovate to increase our resilience to further disruptions and avoid the societal disruptions caused by the recent lockdowns. The report also focuses on trends we see accelerating due to the COVID-19 crisis. The adoption of education technology (edtech) should get a boost as the pandemic is likely to shift attitudes towards increasing edtech spend with schools needing to teach remotely. The value of connectivity has increased during the pandemic and telecom network infrastructure has enabled functions such as eHealth and Big Data &amp; Monitoring. And the rapid shift to work from home has been a catalyst for next-generation software focused on productivity &amp; collaboration. Business travel is likely to decline as virtual meetings replace face-to-face ones and in turn adversely affect the airline and travel industry. As corporates rethink office space, we look at the debate over the role of cities and real estate. Finally, a silver lining from remote working &mdash; air pollution has declined and we look at the positive environmental effects of working from home one day a week. Most importantly, we hope you and your families remain safe and healthy throughout this difficult time.Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Chinchih Chen,James Ainley,Michael Bilerman,Elizabeth Curmi, PhD.,Ami Galla,Robert Garlick,Aaron Guy,Georgios Ierodiaconou,Mark A Manduca,Nithin Pejaver, CFA,Jenny Ping,Monique Pollard,Walter H Pritchard, CFA,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,

A New World of Remote Work

And just like that, working from home is a real thing. With the coronavirus spreading, and lockdowns ordered, many office workers suddenly became ‘work from homers’. If you were lucky, you grabbed a few things off your desk on your last day in the office in case you had to work on your laptop from the dining room for a few days. But that turned into a couple of weeks and then a few months. At some point you realized one or two things about working from home – you needed a proper chair and an extra monitor. You also missed your commute as it signified the end of your working day. Now, work and life blend together and somehow it always feels like Tuesday. And that’s before the extra stresses of home schooling, all-the-time family time, and the weekly strategic battle to find a pack of toilet paper.

Technology at Work v5.0

How could the acceleration of digital during the COVID-19 pandemic lead to an acceleration in the shift to a post-production society where jobs in both the manufacturing and service sectors are at risk for automation and offshoring? Click on the video for a preview of the Technology at Work v6.0 report.

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 Authors: 
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The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe.

Technology at Work v7.0

The digital age is set to cause more upheaval than previous technological revolutions because change is happening faster than ever before and is fundamentally altering the way we live and work. This series studies the changing nature of innovation and work, and the associated implications for the future of employment and society more widely. We assess the extent of automation and its effect on the labor market across industries and countries and propose pathways and strategies that can help governments and societies adapt successfully.

Technology at Work Series

Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions

 Providing unique thought leadership tackling the key opportunities and challenges of the 21st century. 

Technology at Work v6.0

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