The World Rewired
In our February 2026 report Supply Chain Financing: Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI, we found that global supply chains had been resilient despite geopolitical pressures. Six months later, we use the most recent data on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to see whether global trade remains robust.
Since February, two overlapping pressures have intensified. US tariff policy has continued to reshape import flows, and the Iran conflict has introduced an energy shock that has pushed shipping costs higher, disrupted Middle East routing and kept Citi’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index at its highest sustained level since 2021–22.
The most notable change has been corporate behaviour. Our updated large corporate survey shows that companies entered 2026 focused on a new priority: extracting liquidity from the supply chains they have already restructured. Treasury functions are being asked to surface cash that has been embedded in supplier relationships, inventory positions and payment cycles.
The trade reorientation documented in February has continued to accelerate. China’s pivot away from Western markets toward Latin America, Africa and Oceania is now reflected clearly in the shipping and payment data. AI adoption in trade operations has moved into the mainstream, with usage among large corporates nearly tripling since 2024.
Key Takeaways
1. Iran conflict takes its toll: Brent oil has stayed elevated ($90/barrel) despite continued diplomatic efforts. This pushed Citi’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index to its highest level since 2021–22.
2. Payment flows holding strong: Despite US tariffs and the Iran conflict, Citi’s payment network data showed 40% YoY growth across all sectors in H1 2026 - a signal that corporate transaction activity remains robust.
3. Tech flows surge on AI spend: Technology payment flows rose 50% YoY, anchored by a global AI capex cycle that pushed US AI spending to over $450 billion annualized. Cross-border flows from Taiwan to Singapore alone were up 90%.2
4. Liquidity now the top priority: 72% of global corporates identify releasing trapped liquidity as their top strategic priority for the next 12 months, up from 66% at the start of 2026.
5. Cost pressure is structural: 68% of corporates cite rising input costs as the primary driver of working capital decisions, and 48% flag geopolitical risk, with both figures still rising. High interest rates are cited by 59% globally, climbing to 86% in LATAM.
6. Liquidity now the top priority: 72% of global corporates identify releasing trapped liquidity as their top strategic priority for the next 12 months, up from 66% at the start of 2026.
7. Cost pressure is structural: 68% of corporates cite rising input costs as the primary driver of working capital decisions, and 48% flag geopolitical risk, with both figures still rising. High interest rates are cited by 59% globally, climbing to 86% in LATAM.