Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (September 22, 2025)

Consensus continues to expect a 25bps rate cut in the September meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, most participants expect that the next move in the monetary policy rate will be in September 2025, and all expect a 25bps cut as the next move. Out of 38 participants, 37 expect a cut in September 2025, while one expects it in November 2025. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 was reduced to 7.00% from 7.25%, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 7.50%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation was kept at 6.50% from the previous survey, with estimates ranging from 6.00 to 7.00%.

Peso expectations were reduced again for 2025 and 2026. Now the consensus projects the USDMXN at 19.26 for Y/E 2025 from 19.50 in the last survey. For y/e 2026, it was reduced the expectation to 19.87 from 20.00 compared with the previous survey.

For the 1H of September, the consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.19% and 0.21%, respectively. For the full month of September, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.28%MoM, or 3.81%YoY, higher than August’s rate of 3.57% and lower than a fortnight ago (0.30%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.30%MoM in September, or 4.25%YoY, slightly higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.23%YoY and lower than the previous survey at 0.28%MoM.

Core inflation for 2025 y/e median expectation increased marginally. Headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 was reduced slightly to 3.99% from 4.00% in the previous survey, while for the core component, it was increased to 4.12% from 4.10%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation was increased marginally to 3.79% from 3.75%, while core inflation median estimation was kept at 3.70%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.

GDP growth median expectation declined marginally for 2026. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP was kept at 0.5%, with estimations ranging from -0.1% to 0.8%. For 2026, it was reduced from 1.4% to 1.3%, compared to the previous survey.

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