Markets Edition: Halloween Pullback — Tactical or Something More Sinister?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The recent Nasdaq pullback is fueling short-term caution due to AI financing fears and geopolitical risks, creating uncertainty in the equity market outlook
- The key debate is whether the AI bubble has peaked; while some metrics suggest frothy conditions, strong underlying demand and liquidity indicate the boom may not be over
- The recommended equity strategy is to buy the dip, as a potential decline in oil prices could trigger a significant sector rotation, with Fed policy remaining a critical factor
Dirk Willer and Alex Saunders discuss what's behind recent pullbacks for equities and which strategies investors should consider going forward. They're cautious given market signals, yet open-minded given that the AI bubble may not have peaked.
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Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation
Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation. In this role, Dirk develops broad macro themes, related asset allocation views as well as trade ideas across a wide range of asset classes and geographies. Dirk also directs the Quant Macro Team. Prior to that, Dirk was the Global Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income and FX Strategy. He joined the firm in 2005 as the head of LatAm Local Market Strategy. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as their global macro strategist and portfolio manager. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the first team in the Institutional Investor survey for LatAm local strategy and the first or second team for LatAm sovereign credit strategy since 2017, as well as first in CEEMEA and Asia local strategy in 2019. Dirk is the lead author of “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets”, published by Wiley in 2020. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. He did his undergraduate work at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.
Alex Saunders, Head of Quantitative Global Macro and Asset Allocation
Alex Saunders is a Director with Citi Research and heads the Quantitative Global Macro and Asset Allocation team. Prior to joining Citi in 2021 he spent more than 15 years on the buy side as a researcher and portfolio manager for quantitative investment strategies. His most recent position covered asset allocation and US credit for Itau Asset Management. Before that, he worked for QS Investors and Deutsche Asset Management across a variety of asset classes. Alex holds an MA degree in Economics from London Metropolitan University and a BSc from the University of Liverpool.
