Markets Edition: Q4: It’s Not How You Start, It’s How You Finish
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Citi’s Q4 U.S. equity strategy anticipates a constructive end to the year with market performance influenced by the ongoing AI-infrastructure buildout midterm elections and key macro drivers like oil prices and Fed policy
- The strategy suggests a contrarian investing approach favoring sectors pressured by hawkish Fed rate hikes for a potential snapback, while remaining selective within the persistent but nuanced AI trade particularly in semiconductors
- A potential year-end rally is contingent on the Fed’s hawkish narrative mitigating. Investors should watch for opportunities in rate-sensitive sectors and expect continued though nuanced momentum in AI-related stocks through year-end.
Scott Chronert and Patrick Galvin discuss topics they see shaping the fourth quarter for markets, and why the factors at work suggest a more eclectic approach to positioning as the end of the year approaches.
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Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research
Scott Chronert is a Managing Director at Citi Research serving several roles, including US Equity Strategist, Global Head of ETF Strategy & Analysis, and US Small/Mid Cap strategy. Scott assumed the US Equity Strategy role at Citi in October 2021. He brings a fundamental approach to assess the US equity landscape. Regarding ETFs, Scott and his team have been at the forefront of sell-side, institutional grade, analysis of the ETF ecosystem since 2012. His product covers all facets of ETFs, including broader industry trends, flow analysis, stock and market impacts, complemented with positioning views covering most asset classes and geographies. His work on US Small/Mid Cap provides a blend of top-down and stock-specific insight. Scott also contributes to Citi’s global equity strategy product. Prior to joining Citi Research in 2010, Scott spent more than 25 years in Institutional Equity Sales and Management roles (mostly at Citi). Citi was named Global ETF Research Provider of the Year 2019 by ETFexpress. Scott is a graduate of Dartmouth College, AB degree 1978 and UCLA Graduate School of Management, MBA degree 1980.
Patrick Galvin is a Vice President at Citi Research
Patrick Galvin is a Vice President at Citi Research covering US Equity Strategy as well as US ETF Strategy. Prior to joining Citi in 2022, Patrick spent 8 years on the buy-side working for two of the largest global ETF issuers. Most recently, he spent 4 years working as an Institutional ETF Specialist & ETF Capital Markets Strategist within Invesco’s ETF business. Prior to Invesco, Patrick spent 4 years working within Deutsche Bank’s Asset Management division (DWS), where he worked in ETF Capital Markets. Patrick graduated summa cum laude from Gettysburg College in 2014 with a BA in Economics and is a CFA Charterholder.
