Markets Edition: Shutdown Over - Why Investors Should Care
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Following the U.S. government reopening, Citi expects weaker labor market data to prompt a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, a key event for the current equity market outlook.
- The combination of an anticipated Fed rate cut and improving market liquidity post-shutdown creates a favorable environment for U.S. equities, potentially reigniting the year-end "Santa rally" despite a recent pullback.
- Key indicators to watch are upcoming labor market data (payrolls, JOLTS) and inflation reports, as these will be pivotal for the Fed's December decision and the potential for a year-end "Santa rally".
Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, and Alex Saunders, Head of Global Quant Macro Strategy, offer two reasons they think it’s too early to give up on a Santa rally. First, with the government shutdown behind us, economic data will flow again and we expect a Fed rate cut in December. Second, liquidity will improve on the margin. Both should be mildly positive for equities into year’s end.
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Dirk Willer, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation, Citi
Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation. In this role, Dirk develops broad macro themes, related asset allocation views as well as trade ideas across a wide range of asset classes and geographies. Dirk also directs the Quant Macro Team. Prior to that, Dirk was the Global Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income and FX Strategy. He joined the firm in 2005 as the head of LatAm Local Market Strategy. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as their global macro strategist and portfolio manager. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the first team in the Institutional Investor survey for LatAm local strategy and the first or second team for LatAm sovereign credit strategy since 2017, as well as first in CEEMEA and Asia local strategy in 2019. Dirk is the lead author of “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets”, published by Wiley in 2020. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. He did his undergraduate work at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland
Alex Saunders, Head of Global Quant Macro Strategy, Citi
Alex Saunders is a Director with Citi Research and heads the Quantitative Global Macro and Asset Allocation team. Prior to joining Citi in 2021 he spent more than 15 years on the buy side as a researcher and portfolio manager for quantitative investment strategies. His most recent position covered asset allocation and US credit for Itau Asset Management. Before that, he worked for QS Investors and Deutsche Asset Management across a variety of asset classes. Alex holds an MA degree in Economics from London Metropolitan University and a BSc from the University of Liverpool.
