Under the theme “Building prosperity through policy,” leaders will discuss policy reforms that support job creation, unlock private investment, and drive economic growth.On Wednesday 15th April, Citi will be hosting a Charting Investable Pathways for Ukraine's Reconstruction panel at Ukraine House.For more information,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/meetings/splash/spring" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">click here</a>.

The Spring Meetings of the IMF|WBG bring together central bankers, ministers of finance and development, parliamentarians, private sector executives, representatives from civil society organizations and academics to discuss issues of global concern, including the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness.

2026 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) & World Bank Group (WBG)

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Reimagining European Capital Markets - From Fragmentation to Harmonization

Europe has the chance to reposition itself as an attractive destination for investment and innovation even as it grapples with geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility.The region’s capital markets infrastructure consists of an array of often unconnected trading venues, clearing houses, settlement systems, central counterparties and data and technology providers – all of which are fragmented across the various countries in the region. This disjointedness has implications for capital formation, liquidity, costs and efficiency.This Citi GPS report identifies gaps in the infrastructure ecosystem and highlights steps to unlock an integrated capital market in Europe through harmonizing post-trade processes.

<hr>European capital markets suffer from significant fragmentation in post-trade processes, issuance and listings. 63% of our 4Q25 survey respondents cite significant gaps in regulation, policy, taxation and operational processes which need to be addressed. Only 7% believe most barriers to harmonization have been addressed.<hr>The capital market fragmentation in Europe has contributed to a capital formation gap. Between 2020 and 2025, the value of IPOs in EU was 0.6% as a percentage of GDP compared with 2.1% for the U.S.1,2 The proportion of European IPOs listing in the U.S. has tripled since 2015 to 22% of all IPOs by European companies by value3.<hr>50% of respondents cite the high number of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) in Europe as a key factor driving capital markets fragmentation creating complexity and reinforcing national laws instead of a single market. Reducing the number of central securities depositories to fewer than 10 from 30+ today could bring price efficiency and help create a single market structure.<hr>43% of survey respondents cite legal and regulatory inconsistency as one of the primary drivers for capital markets fragmentation. The shift from divergent directives to consistent regulations, alongside eliminating redundant due diligence could potentially unlock billions of euros in annual investments and boost GDP by 1.5% over 10 years4.<hr>40% of survey respondents say that high and opaque cost structures contribute to the fragmentation of Europe’s capital markets, reflecting domestic monopolies and a lack ofcompetition. Average settlement costs are 30-300% higher and safekeeping costs 160-500% higher than in the U.S.<hr>Tokenization has a role to play in harmonization. About 36% of survey respondents agree that tokenization could boost efficiency via automated, real-time processes, better collateral mobility and liquidity, and unified data on shared ledgers.

Key Takeaways

1 AFME, Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report 4Q24 &amp; 3Q25, 10 December 2025 2 Renaissance Capital, 2025 IPO Market Stats, 26 December 2025 3 New Financial – Rethinking Capital Markets, A reality check on international listings, April 2025 4 CEPR, The Economic Impact of European Capital Market Integration, 22 September 2025

From Fragmentation to Harmonization 

This Citi GPS report identifies gaps in the infrastructure ecosystem and highlights steps to unlock an integrated capital market in Europe through harmonizing post-trade processes.

Reimagining European Capital Markets

<ul><li>We look at nine potential “wildcard” scenarios that investors should keep in mind for the near future</li><li>None of the nine is among our base cases but any of them could reshape our world. And we note that this decade has already seen a string of unexpected events arrive at a rapid rate.</li><li>We divide our wildcards into three themes the shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar one, asset bubbles popping, and a potential European growth renaissance &nbsp;</li></ul>

Wildcards — Tail Risks in an Increasingly Fragile World

A new Must C report from Citi Research economists and strategists looks at nine potential “wildcards” that investors should be aware of. While none of these scenarios is among our base cases, any of them could reshape our world in the near future. And as we note, the 2020s has seen a string of unexpected events arrive at a rapid rate: COVID, Russia-Ukraine war, the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), and trade wars.Our wildcards can be assigned to three themes. The first (Wildcards 1-5) concerns the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world. The second (Wildcards 6-8) is related to asset bubbles popping. And the third (represented by standalone Wildcard 9) is specific to Europe, imagining a growth renaissance that sees the Eurozone economy grow at a faster rate similar to the U.S.<h2>Wildcard #1: Global Fragmentation</h2>U.S.–Europe and U.S.–China trade and political tensions could escalate further and bring about a deeper global fragmentation, pushing tariffs and non tariff barriers sharply higher and accelerating decoupling of economic powers. The U.S., Europe and China are the three largest economies in the world, collectively accounting for nearly 60% of global GDP and 40% of global trade, and this scenario would have material ramifications for the world’s economy. We see trade as the likely first transmission channel, followed by tech, investment, and geopolitics — rare earths, NATO durability, and Treasury holdings all could come into play. Such a scenario would likely mean substantially lower growth in all three economies and worldwide. Supply chains would seize, re routing slowly and imperfectly, with stagflationary pressures rising. Central banks would face a growth/inflation trade off and likely prioritize activity with faster cuts.<h2>Wildcard #2: Perception as Risk — Foreign Buyer Strike Narrative</h2>We don’t expect a structural foreign exit from U.S. fixed income, whose foundational role in global portfolios make such a shift impractical. But we acknowledge the narrative of a “foreign buyer strike” can move markets independently of flows, as seen after last year’s Liberation Day tariffs. Auction takedowns and Treasury International Capital data still signal healthy demand, yet hedged yield math, rising non U.S. sovereign supply, and larger coupon auctions can fuel anxiety. The risk is a duration led shock if foreign insurers pare long end exposure, pressuring utilities, tech, and bank funding curves.<h2>Wildcard #3: Faster Than Expected RMB Appreciation</h2>We think China could accelerate renminbi (RMB) appreciation beyond market expectations (and the conventional wisdom) in an effort to ease trade frictions, advance RMB internationalization, and support “go global” corporate strategies. A stronger currency could be a low cost bargaining chip amid potential Trump–Xi meetings and mounting scrutiny of China’s outsized goods surplus. Policymakers could also seek to enhance the appeal of RMB assets after weak inflows and lackluster China government bond performance in U.S. dollar (USD) terms.<h2>Wildcard #4: Monroe Doctrine Extreme — U.S. Blockades Americas Oil</h2>We consider a scenario in which the U.S. hinders or even stops exports of Latin American — or broader Americas — crude oil to the world. Such a shock would rival the 1973 Arab oil embargo, dislocating benchmarks: Brent/Dubai could spike while WTI/WCS/Mars/Maya would be discounted on captive supply and storage stress. Second order geopolitical responses from China, Europe, OPEC+, and others would add volatility. Over time, energy-security efforts could accelerate, but near term inflation outside the Americas would likely jump while parts of the Americas could see disinflationary pressure.<h2>Wildcard #5: U.S.–Iran War or Iranian Civil Conflict</h2>Our base case is likely pressure without escalation, potentially culminating in de escalation. But paths to conflict remain: strikes on nuclear and energy assets, retaliatory attacks on regional infrastructure, and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. A moderate disruption scenario implies durable risk premia in oil (and possibly greater beta in European natural gas). An extreme case — Strait transit impairment or internal Iranian fragmentation — could deliver substantial supply outages and price spikes.<h2>Wildcard #6: End of the JPY Carry Trade</h2>Relative rates spreads, strong equities and domestic economics could drive a stronger Japanese yen (JPY), especially if hedge ratios or domestic asset allocations shift. Narrow positioning metrics understate the broader system: Japan’s ~¥1,500 trillion in net foreign assets underpin funding across portfolios, with lower foreign exchange (FX) hedging ratios on USD-denominated assets after years of JPY weakness. We forecast sub ¥145/$ against the USD by year’s end, and USDJPY could fall below ¥140 if there’s unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades. JPY carry trades have been structurally built in the global market; an unwinding would cause a far faster and stronger currency appreciation than we currently assume.<h2>Wildcard #7: Bursting AI Bubble, Aggressive Fed Cuts</h2>We see U.S. equities in bubble territory. Bubbles can extend on liquidity, but unwind risks rise if inflation stays sticky and the Fed leans hawkish, or if the return on investment on AI capex disappoints. A sharp drawdown would transmit via wealth effects, risking recession and driving aggressive Fed cuts while Treasuries rally. The USD might weaken with a lag. Equity rotation would likely mirror 2000: out of tech and cyclicals, into defensives and rate sensitives, with geographic diversification offering only limited shelter.<h2>Wildcard #8: AI Hits Credit</h2>We see AI driven disruption as particularly acute for leveraged credit where software and insurance exposures are concentrated, notably in business development companies and loans. Pricing has tracked leverage and market-cap tiers, with smaller, more fragmented software names underperforming. We anticipate a widely dispersed range of outcomes, with AI-related disruption causing both clear winners and losers to emerge; some companies will successfully leverage AI to enhance operations, while others may face obsolescence. This asymmetrical risk-reward profile is particularly problematic for credit instruments, which inherently offer limited upside against significant downside risk. We see two potential avenues for the AI disruption theme to affect financial conditions — through loan ETFs and the generation of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). While ETFs are only 2% of the loan market, their daily liquidity causes an outsized effect on market conditions. CLOs, meanwhile, are the primary buyer of loans, with 71% of the loan market. Any slowdown in CLO issuance would materially tighten financial conditions for issuers that rely on lenders for capital, which could trigger a cycle of higher distress rates and deeper secondary-market selloffs. &nbsp;<h2>Wildcard #9: EU Exceptionalism — U.S.-Style 2.5% Growth</h2>We consider a low probability but plausible EU economic growth renaissance toward ~2.5% over three to four years. A pivot inward — marked by more fiscal outlays, reshored supply chains, additional capex on multiple fronts — could spark a manufacturing rebound and productivity lift, initially tempering inflation and delaying the European Central Bank’s hawkishness. The equity implications would include faster EPS growth and P/E re rating, narrowing the U.S. premium. FX could respond via flow rotation from U.S. equities, echoing early 2000s dynamics; under similar conditions, EURUSD could appreciate materially, though the path depends on relative policy and inflation trajectories.

A redacted public version of our new report, Must C: Wildcards — Tail Risks in an Increasingly Fragile World, is available <a href="https://ir.citi.com/Pcl0aTPuvf6zZyncT1liRhf4nFRazh4rLihrQNJI_OpiSlJ8sUAz9vvqnr9F7hVgIbhZKgQipkajM3_-sssU4bLcSdezE_v8TiE2ueKc6Nc%3D" target="_blank">here</a>.

Must C

The 2020s have seen “wildcards” arrive at a rapid rate: COVID, the Russia-Ukraine war, AI and trade wars. And we’re only halfway through the decade! In this new Must C report, Citi Research considers more potential wildcards. While not our base cases, all of these scenarios could reshape our world in the near future.

Wildcards: Tail Risks in an Increasingly Fragile World

Transcript

<ul><li>Understanding the impact on the global labor workforce, where AI agents take on more tasks and agency, fundamentally changing the structure of the economy and GDP over the next 5-10 years</li><li>The importance of understanding the shift in "moats" or competitive advantages, as software alone is no longer sufficient and the physical infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities are becoming more critical</li><li>The potential breakthroughs in quantum computing, which could significantly expand the capabilities of AI systems by enabling simulations and explorations of the physical world that are not possible with classical computing</li><li>To navigate this rapid change, it is important to develop a "deconstructionist" mindset, breaking down the key components and building frameworks to analyze the data and connections between them</li></ul>

In this episode of Citi Institute podcast, host Alex Miller is joined by Tony Kim, Global Technology Team Head, BlackRock and Alex Watkins, Global Head of Technology Capital Markets, Investment Banking, Citi. Together, they explore how AI and the ‘Intelligence Revolution’ are the single biggest drivers of growth, and how the shift in value is moving from the top layer of software and labor services to the underlying computing infrastructure and AI models.Tony Kim discusses breakthrough novelty and original invention as capabilities AI currently struggles to replicate.Alex Watkins emphasizes that in certain areas of tech, being the lowest cost marginal producer will be key to winning, not just innovation and market position.Together, they reflect on exciting opportunities and potential breakthroughs in space, quantum computing, and agentification. &nbsp;Citigroup (“Citi”) and BlackRock are not affiliated and are independent of each other. BlackRock maintains a client relationship with Citi through Citi Investment Banking. The speakers’ views are their own and may not necessarily reflect the views of Citi or any of its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

Tony Kim, Managing Director, is Head of the Global Technology Team within the Fundamental Equities division of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group. He is lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Technology Opportunities Fund and related global strategies.Mr. Kim joined BlackRock in 2013. His 30 years of experience in technology investments also includes key roles at Artisan Partners, Credit Suisse Asset Management, Neuberger Berman, Merrill Lynch and SG Warburg.Mr. Kim is a member of the Advisory Board for Columbia Business School’s Digital Future Initiative, which brings together Columbia faculty members and leaders from across industries to help organizations, governments and communities optimize and accelerate the technological advances of the future.Mr. Kim earned a BS degree in Industrial Engineering from the University of Illinois and an MBA from Columbia University.

Tony Kim. Head of Fundamental Equities’ Global Technology Team, Portfolio Manager, BlackRock

Alex Watkins joined Citi in October 2025 as Global Head of TechnologyCapital Markets–leading Citi’s efforts across debt and equity.Prior to Citi, Alex was the Co-Head, International Equity Capital Markets at J.P. Morgan, where he worked for the last 11 years. This group represented all of J.P. Morgan’s international ECM businesses –Europe, Middle East and Asia Pacific.Prior to that Alex worked at Goldman Sachs. He has over 20 years of investment banking experience, having had leadership roles in both ECM and corporate finance.Alex has worked on over 200+ capital market transactions. Since joining Citi, recent deals include the IPOs of Wealthfrontand Navan, primary / second follow on for Symbotic, convertible bonds for IREN, Checkpoint and Coreweave.

Alex Watkins, Global Head of Technology Capital Markets, Investment Banking, Citi 

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How Do You Win When Software Is No Longer the Moat?

In this episode of Citi Institute podcast, host Alex Miller is joined by Tony Kim, Global Technology Team Head, BlackRock and Alex Watkins, Global Head of Technology Capital Markets, Investment Banking, Citi. Together, they explore how AI and the ‘Intelligence Revolution’ are the single biggest drivers of growth, and how the shift in value is moving from the top layer of software and labor services to the underlying computing infrastructure and AI models.

Where the Value Moves

Amy Thompson

<ul><li>Philanthropy is crucial for Ukraine's long-term recovery advocating a strategic shift from centralized aid to locally-led initiatives to build economic resilience and foster future prosperity</li><li>The strategic significance of this approach lies in empowering local non-profits and actors, ensuring more effective sustainable human recovery and maximizing philanthropic impact</li><li>Despite ongoing donor fatigue, critical next steps involve prioritizing strategic philanthropy, supporting local non-profits and addressing long-term recovery needs including economic opportunities and psychosocial support</li></ul>

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked an outpouring of philanthropy from across the globe with $1.6 billion pledged in just over six months.1 Although giving has slowed since then, philanthropy can help drive Ukraine’s human recovery – which we argued <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/ukraines-recovery-the-private-sectors-role-and-three-hurdles-to-clear" target="_blank">in our note on the role of the private secto</a>r will underpin the country’s long-term economic resilience and future prosperity. &nbsp;To unlock its full potential, philanthropic capital must evolve. Long-term recovery will be best supported by a deliberate shift from centralized aid toward support for smaller, locally led non-profits working alongside civil society peers and government institutions. &nbsp;Citi Institute discussed the current status of giving to and in Ukraine and opportunities for strategic philanthropy in the recovery with Karen Kardos, Head of Philanthropic Advisory for Citi Wealth, Rachael Barber, Citi’s Director for International Community Relations who has responsibility for the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Olga Lebedyeva who chairs the committee of Citi colleagues that disburses the firm’s charitable donations in Ukraine. &nbsp;<h2>Donors continue to support Ukraine’s resilience – but fatigue has set in &nbsp;</h2>Philanthropy has already made a huge contribution to Ukraine’s wartime resilience. Total grants and pledges have now reached $3.4 billion according to the latest data from Candid. This is about the same as all-cause giving in the Netherlands each year ($3.2bn)2 and equal to Ukraine’s recovery needs in both the Emergency Response &amp; Civil Protection and Justice &amp; Public Administration categories ($3.3bn) on the most recent estimates.3Individual donors whose contributions are not tracked in this data are also continuing to give to Ukraine after breaking records for the amount given in early 2022.4Domestically, polling shows that 85% of Ukrainians gave to charity in 2024 and many give monthly.5 Outside Ukraine, Kardos observes that the country is “still very much in the psyche of American donors”. Evaluators like Charity Navigator have continued to maintain lists of international non-profits working in Ukraine, signaling sustained engagement. &nbsp;But giving has clearly slowed. Ninety-four percent of the pledges tracked by Candid were made in 2022, and Kardos, Barber, and Lebedyeva all point to signs of “donor fatigue”. A higher level of giving often accompanies the early weeks and months of a disaster and tends to peter out as media coverage subsides and other global emergencies come to the fore. &nbsp;Economic pressures have compounded this effect. Lebedyeva highlights that domestic donations have been constrained by a cumulative rate of inflation of 63% since 2022, pushing many Ukranians below the poverty line. &nbsp;While donor fatigue is real, it does not diminish the importance of philanthropy in Ukraine’s recovery. Instead, it increases the need for funding to be deployed more strategically. &nbsp;<h2>Philanthropy can also contribute to Ukraine’s longer-term recovery &nbsp;</h2>Even as emergency funding subsides, the opportunity for impactful philanthropy in Ukraine extends well beyond the cessation of hostilities. Ukraine’s recovery requires rebuilding livelihoods, demining land, and addressing the collective trauma of living through war – each of these is an opportunity for donors.Barber focuses on the human component of recovery, highlighting how non-profits can help families access economic opportunities and generate an income as Ukraine rebuilds – for instance by supporting entrepreneurship or re-skilling workers. She anticipates that non-profits will also contribute to psychosocial support – like providing help with post-trauma mental health issues and enabling access to education. &nbsp;Lebedyeva notes that voluntary organizations will play a key role in meeting the needs of vulnerable groups. Both children and elderly people have lost caregivers as a result of the war, and this has created an urgent demand for social support services. Veteran reintegration is another critical priority. Lebedyeva says that “it's crucial to prepare society to welcome veterans.” In part this means pathways to employment to reintegrate veterans to civilian life, but public infrastructure will also need to become more accessible for people with injuries – lamentably including veterans and civilians.Our first note on Ukraine’s recovery argued that a resilient human recovery is not only a standalone challenge, but also a hurdle that must be cleared in order to encourge private sector investment. &nbsp;While the Ukrainian government will likely act on these issues when peace comes, Lebedyeva expects that volunteer movements and NGOs will remain vital to the recovery efforts. A report published by Chatham House in July 2025 agrees, arguing that the whole of ‘Team Ukraine’ – including civil society, the public sector, and citizens – must be mobilized for an effective recovery.6<h2>Funding should shift to local actors, for a more effective recovery &nbsp;</h2>As Ukraine’s needs evolve, so must philanthropic strategies. Experts in disaster philanthropy increasingly conclude that a locally led recovery is a more effective one.7 Barber underlines this: “While the early days of an emergency require a swift influx of capital, figuring out how to get grants to local actors is important for philanthropy to contribute to an effective longer-term recovery”. &nbsp;Local actors that could absorb philanthropic support now abound after extraordinary growth in Ukraine’s non-profit ecosystem. The number of non-profits in Ukraine has increased by 70% since 2022.8 “Ukrainians have shown great ingenuity, resilience, and a capacity for self-organization,” Lebedyeva notes, as demand for an engaged civil society has created supply. &nbsp;Yet funding has not followed this growth. One examination of the $10 billion in humanitarian funding tracked by the UN (which includes donations by international governments) found that only 1% of this sum has gone to Ukrainian civil society organizations.9 Chatham House reports that Ukrainian civil society organizations see this approach to philanthropy as “giving people fish, rather than a fishing rod”. &nbsp;Analysis of data from Candid – which tracks foundations, corporations, and affluent families, but excludes individual donors and governments – reinforces this picture. Since 2022, the share of philanthropic grants for Ukrainian non-profits has decreased, even as the number of such organizations has increased (Figure).10<h2>Majority of pledges go to international – rather than Ukrainian – organizations</h2>Giving to smaller or newer non-profits can be challenging, especially for institutional donors who are writing larger checks. These donors have high due diligence requirements, and their donations may be too large for smaller charities to absorb. However, these barriers are not insurmountable – collaboration between smaller non-profits with related missions could be part of the solution. Innovations are also emerging, like databases of pre-approved non-profits which have already met funders’ standard due diligence assessments.&nbsp;<h2>Looking Ahead</h2>Philanthropy has already played a meaningful role in supporting Ukraine through acute phases of the war. Now, it stands to contribute enormously to Ukraine’s recovery. Experience teaches that an efficient and durable recovery is one that is owned and led by local actors who are more aware of community needs and cultural nuances. Funding local actors has so far been challenging, but clearing this hurdle is vital if philanthropic donors are to maximize the value of their contribution to a resilient and prosperous Ukraine.<hr>[1] We described this in detail in our Citi GPS report Philanthropy and the Global Economy 2.0.[2] According to our analysis in Global Giving – <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/global-giving">https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/global-giving</a>[3] According to estimates in the World Bank’s RDNA 4 from February 2025 – <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099022025114040022/pdf/P180174-ca39eccd-ea67-4bd8-b537-ff73a675a0a8.pdf">https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099022025114040022/pdf/P180174-ca39eccd-ea67-4bd8-b537-ff73a675a0a8.pdf</a>[4] For example, the British public set a world record for the most raised in a single week for an online campaign with their donations to the Disaster Emergency Committee Ukraine Appeal in March 2023.[5] &nbsp;<a href="https://zagoriy.foundation/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/02_12_2_doslidzhennya_sektoru_blagodijnosti.pdf">https://zagoriy.foundation/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/02_12_2_doslidzhennya_sektoru_blagodijnosti.pdf</a>[6] &nbsp;<a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/mobilizing-team-ukraine-successful-recovery">https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/mobilizing-team-ukraine-successful-recovery</a>[7]&nbsp; For instance, see Global Giving, 2021. ‘The Future of Disaster Philanthropy’. One reason is that local organizations are more cost-effective than international actors. See Refugee International, 2024. ‘Passing the Buck: The Economics of Localizing Aid in Ukraine’.[8]&nbsp; <a href="https://opendatabot.ua/en/analytics/non-profit-2023">https://opendatabot.ua/en/analytics/non-profit-2023</a>[9] Refugees International - ‘Annual Ukraine Localization Survey 2024’.[10] There are limitations to this analysis: first, data on giving is always patchwork so this picture is incomplete. Second, donations to International NGOs (INGOs) are not incompatible with a locally led recovery as INGOs often have local delivery partners.

Citi Institute discussed the current status of giving to and in Ukraine and opportunities for strategic philanthropy in the recovery with Karen Kardos, Head of Philanthropic Advisory for Citi Wealth, Rachael Barber, Citi’s Director for International Community Relations who has responsibility for the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Olga Lebedyeva who chairs the committee of Citi colleagues that disburses the firm’s charitable donations in Ukraine. &nbsp;

Beyond Humanitarian Aid: Philanthropy Catalyzes Ukraine’s Recovery

<ul><li>So far, Middle East turmoil has led us to only modestly cut our 2026 growth forecast. We remain in “wait and see” mode, as outcomes range from a short-lived oil spike to a more damaging shock.</li><li>A sustained shock would significantly weaken global growth and raise inflation, though the global economy is more resilient than it was during previous energy shocks</li><li>The economic pain would be unevenly felt, with Asia most exposed and Europe facing headwinds. Those better positioned include the U.S., Canada and oil exporters outside the Middle East.</li></ul>

A new Citi Research report from a team of economists led by Nathan Sheets considers the recent turmoil in the Middle East and concludes that it’s dramatically shifted the balance of risks for the global economy to the downside.&nbsp;For now, we have only modestly downgraded our 2026 global growth forecast to 2.7%, down 0.2 percentage point from February. However, we are broadly in “wait and see” mode, given the rapid evolution of the conflict and the wide range of potential outcomes.If oil prices spike only briefly, our existing forecast — or something close to it — could still hold. But more severe scenarios are also in play. In particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a sustained period, Brent oil prices could plausibly stay above $100 a barrel through much of the year. This could push global growth to below 2%, bringing amplified recession risks, particularly for oil importing economies. And global headline inflation could jump to well above 4%.More generally, we estimate that every 10% increase in oil prices reduces global growth by around 15 to 20 basis points (bps), while raising headline inflation by 30 to 40 bps and core inflation by some 10 bps. But we also note that these sensitivities are smaller than in past decades, reflecting a global economy that has become more flexible and resilient.Given a bewildering range of possibilities, we offer three observations for helpful framing and context.First, higher oil prices are not the only transmission channel. Energy dependent supply chains — including fertilizers, aluminum, plastics and other petrochemicals, and helium used in semiconductor manufacturing — are also vulnerable. In addition, heightened uncertainty is weighing on households, firms and markets. The upshot is likely to be reduced consumption and investment, increased market volatility, and weaker economic performance.Second, oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel for most of the year would cause the risk of a full-blown global recession to rise appreciably. But it wouldn’t automatically become our baseline, as the world economy has weathered a series of major shocks in recent years while maintaining near trend growth. Compared with the 1970s, energy intensity (the amount of energy required to generate a unit of gross domestic product) has fallen by roughly half, the global economy is less exposed to developments in oil markets, and governments have accumulated massive energy reserves to help buffer supply disruptions.Third, we see current oil futures as reflecting a probability weighted average of two scenarios: a more benign case in which pressures in the Strait ease over the next few months, and the severe case noted above. Market pricing swung toward the more severe outcomes, but the announcement of a brief cessation of hostilities to allow for negotiations has led to some moderation. As Fed Chair Powell recently noted, “It’s just that we don’t know what the effects [of the turmoil] will be. And, really, no one does.”In addition to the broader picture, we think it’s important to consider the country level implications, asking where the pain is likely to be most acute and which economies may be better positioned.Although oil shocks redistribute income from importers to exporters, they still create global headwinds because oil importing economies generally have higher marginal propensities to spend. Higher oil prices quickly squeeze consumers’ real incomes, while the income gains for exporters are often slower to emerge and less pronounced. Capital obsolescence and other costly adjustments add further drag, particularly for the corporate sector.Upon looking more closely, Asia stands out as the most vulnerable region. South Korea, Japan, and India are heavily dependent on imported fuel and directly exposed to flows through the Strait of Hormuz; their financial markets have already come under pressure. China also faces significant exposure, but its vast strategic oil reserves and likely increased imports from Russia should help cushion the blow.Europe is also facing meaningful headwinds. EU economies are oil importers and thus suffer a negative term of trade shock as prices rise. In addition, disruptions to Qatari natural gas supplies are compounding pressures, though the gas shock is smaller than in 2022.The U.S. and Canada, as net oil exporters with limited direct exposure to the Strait, are comparatively better positioned, though higher oil prices will still generate headwinds. This relative resilience is evident in the widening spread between Brent and WTI prices.Middle Eastern oil exporters, which would normally benefit from higher prices, are instead on the negative side in this episode, as significant portions of their supply are shut in and infrastructure remains vulnerable. Russia, by contrast, may emerge as a significant winner given elevated prices and the temporary relaxation of U.S. oil sanctions. Other exporters outside the Middle East — such as Norway, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Angola — also appear relatively well positioned.

Our new report, Global Economic Outlook &amp; Strategy: Turmoil in the Middle East — Headwinds for the Global Economy, also includes an exploration of the monetary-policy path for central banks. It’s available in full to existing Citi Research clients <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/4NLXT" target="_blank">here</a>.

Global Economic Outlook & Strategy

The Middle East conflict offers significant downside risks for the global economy. While Citi Research’s baseline 2026 growth forecast is only a bit lower than in February, more severe scenarios remain possible. Such outcomes could drag global growth below 2%, push headline inflation above 4%, and stoke recession risks.

Turmoil in the Middle East: Headwinds for the Global Economy

Transcript 

<ul><li>The Middle East conflict is reshaping the global economic outlook elevating stagflation risks with a projected 2.7% growth and over 3% inflation for 2026</li><li>Current restrictive interest rates and diminished household buffers differentiate this period from 2022 amplifying downside risks and underscoring the need for continuous market analysis</li><li>Equity markets, particularly in Europe face potential further downgrades as pre-crisis bullish sentiment unwinds emphasizing the critical need to monitor supply chain and inflation impacts</li></ul>

Beata Manthey, Citi's Head of European Equity Strategy, is joined by Senior Equity Strategist David Groman to discuss the Middle East conflict, explore how it's shifted the equity-markets landscape, and map out scenarios that investors should be thinking about.This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2026 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Beata Manthey is Head of European Equity Strategy in Citi Research. She joined Citi in 2007 as a Global Equity Strategist. Beata is part of a team that focuses on broader equity market issues. Prior to joining Citi, she worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction &amp; Development.

Beata Manthey, Head of European Equity Strategy

David Groman is a Director on the Global Equity Strategy team at Citi Research. Prior to joining Citi in 2021, he served as a Financial Economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He has also worked as a cross-asset macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York.

David Groman, Senior Global Equity Strategy

Beata Manthey, Citi's Head of European Equity Strategy, is joined by Senior Equity Strategist David Groman to discuss the Middle East conflict, explore how it's shifted the equity-markets landscape, and map out scenarios that investors should be thinking about.

/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Markets-Edition-Research-Citi-TRANSCRIPT.pdf

Markets Edition: The Middle East Conflict: Stagflation Risk

<ul><li>The energy shock driven by the Middle East conflict is the largest in history but the macro fallout has so far been limited with lower energy intensity diversified energy sources and strategic-reserve releases cushioning the blow</li><li>Exposure is uneven, with lower income energy importers facing the greatest risks. South Asia and parts of Africa are more vulnerable due to limited buffers while more-developed Asian economies and exporters look better positioned.</li><li>Fiscal outcomes hinge on policy responses to fuel and power prices. Prolonged intervention raises risks for some emerging markets whereas fiscally stronger economies and energy exporters have more room to absorb the shock.</li></ul>

A new Citi Research report from a team of economists led by Johanna Chua looks at the Middle East conflict, the energy shock it’s created, and why the global macro impact has —at least so far — looked surprisingly muted.&nbsp;We’re in the middle of the largest physical energy-supply shock in history, as the International Energy Agency has called the current Middle East conflict the most severe disruption the global oil market has ever seen. Yet the global macroeconomic impact has so far looked more muted than what we saw in past oil shocks. Real oil prices had risen roughly 46% month to date through late March — significant, but far smaller than the more than tripling seen during the 1973 Yom Kippur War or the more than doubling that followed the 1978–79 Iranian Revolution.<h2>Oil Price Outlook: Wide and Uncertain Ranges</h2>Our commodities team forecasts Brent crude to average $110 to $120 a barrel in the near term. If de escalation occurs by the end of April, prices are seen moderating to a range of $70 to $80 a barrel in the year’s second half. But this scenario is highly uncertain. A more adverse outcome — a longer conflict in which energy infrastructure is damaged further or Strait of Hormuz transit is disrupted through midyear — could see Brent reach a bull case $150 a barrel, with $130-a-barrel averages forecast for the second and third quarters.<h2>Why Our Macro Downgrades Are Limited</h2>Despite these risks, our macro adjustments remain limited. Since February, we’ve downgraded emerging-markets (EM) growth by just 0.2 percentage point and lifted our 2026 inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage point, followed by a decline in 2027 inflation. Several mitigating forces help explain this resilience:<ul style="list-style-type:disc;"><li>Energy intensity of gross domestic product is far lower than it was in the 1970s.</li><li>&nbsp;Energy mixes are more diversified, with renewables now playing a materially larger role.</li><li>Governments have executed the largest-ever joint release from strategic reserves — roughly 400 million barrels, far exceeding releases during the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict.</li></ul>&nbsp;Another factor potentially tempering macro spillovers is the backwardation in longer-dated oil and gas futures. While physical spot prices have surged, longer dated contracts suggest markets expect either a relatively short lived shock or persistent disruptions to drive demand destruction that will be sufficient to limit lasting supply impact.<h2>Which Economies Are Most Exposed</h2>To better understand countries’ economic vulnerabilities, we focus on their relative exposures. Outside the Middle East, EM Asia — especially South Asia — faces the greatest risks, followed by developed Asia and parts of Africa, notably Kenya and Egypt. More-industrial/developed Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Singapore possess stronger buffers against a shock, but are also likely to bid aggressively for liquid natural gas (LNG), pushing up global gas prices and so affecting Europe. Our commodities team has made significant revisions to both Asian (JKM) and European (TTF) gas benchmarks.Lower income economies with limited inventory/storage, refining capacity, and fiscal capacity are most vulnerable to fuel and gas shortages. This includes Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam, and possibly Kenya. Some countries have partial buffers, but LNG risks are particularly acute and gas markets may face deeper and longer lasting dislocation than oil markets. Within this context, South Asia appears especially exposed.<h2>FX Performance Tracks Energy Trade Balances</h2>Relative EM FX performance has largely tracked net energy trade balances, though policy choices, relative positioning and policy stances all matter. Net exporters led by Kazakhstan have outperformed, while currencies such as the Egyptian pound and South African rand have underperformed amid investor outflows and more-flexible exchange regimes. Still, several currencies — Pakistan’s, Turkey’s, Singapore’s and China’s — have proved surprisingly resilient. Latin American FX has also held up well given the region’s relative energy self sufficiency and access to North American gas.<h2>Pass-Through to the Real Economy</h2>The pass through of higher energy prices to the real economy varies widely. Fuel pricing mechanisms range from full deregulation to stabilization funds, formula based adjustments and outright intervention. Nigeria and the Philippines have seen the sharpest transport fuel price increases, though for different reasons — deregulation in Nigeria vs. a pure supply shock in the Philippines.<h2>Renewables, Fuel Switching, and Fiscal Risks</h2>Electricity prices are generally more regulated and adjust more slowly, amplifying fiscal risks if governments intervene for prolonged periods. Net energy importers reliant on gas and oil for power generation — such as Singapore, Egypt, Israel, and Thailand — are most exposed, while economies with more diversified energy mixes are better insulated. Since 2021, the share of wind and solar in global electricity generation has risen sharply, and this rise in renewables use has also helped reduce vulnerability. Coal prices have also lagged oil and gas, enabling some fuel switching.Fiscal risks could rise if the shock persists. Countries with interventionist tendencies and limited energy windfalls — such as Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, and India— bear watching. By contrast, fiscally strong industrial Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan and net energy exporters — a category that includes much of Latin America, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria — look like they’re in a much better position.

Our new report, Emerging Markets Economic Outlook &amp; Strategy: Middle East Turmoil — Unsettled and Unsettling, also includes a discussion of central banks’ potential responses and a look at other potential disruptions from the existing turmoil, such as to fertilizers, chemical feedstocks and semiconductors’ supply chains. It’s available in full to existing Citi Research clients <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/eppublic/documentService/dXNlcl9pZD1rdkF1WnhRTjdla2hXSVJqVVpOMXRPWFFYME1uZUk0WSZlbWFpbF9zZW5kX2lkPTQwMjg2MTg3MDQmdj0x/ZG9jX2lkPTMwNDE1NjU3JnBsYXRmb3JtPTEwMCZ2ZW5kb3I9Q2l0aSBWZWxvY2l0eSZjaGFubmVsPUNvcHkgVVJMIExIUyZzdWItY2hhbm5lbD1JbnRlcm5hbA==" target="_blank">here.</a>

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook & Strategy

An energy-led supply shock has driven a relatively muted emerging-markets macro impact assessment. A new Citi Research report explores why the blow has been less than expected, at least so far, and looks at economies that could be more and less affected.

 Middle East Turmoil: Unsettled and Unsettling

<ul><li>Timely Tail Risks: "Wild Cards" are defined as low-probability, high-impact tail risks that, while not base case scenarios, could become realistic due to global fragmentation and rising tensions.</li><li>Iran Conflict Realized: The Iran conflict, initially identified as a "wild card" involving potential regime change or increased conflict disrupting oil flow, tragically materialized shortly after the report's publication.</li><li>US Dollar as Safe Haven: Despite concerns about foreign investors divesting from U.S. assets, the actual risk is lower. The U.S. dollar has surprisingly shown strength and remains a safe haven during turbulent geopolitical times.</li></ul>

Rob Rowe, Citi's U.S. Region Director of Research, sits down with Head of G10 FX Strategy Dan Tobon to discuss wild cards for 2026. They explore a range of scenarios, from the direction of the Middle East conflict and European growth to asset bubbles and private markets.This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2026 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Rob Rowe is the Head of Citi Research’s Global Strategy &amp; Macro Group (GSMG) as well as Head of Research for the Americas. GSMG unites all of Citi’s Economists with Fixed Income, FX, Equity and Commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world’s major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 35 years in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney, Harris Upham &amp; Company in 1989 working in investment banking, fixed income sales, and research. In addition to his overall responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team.

Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research

Daniel Tobon is Head of G10 FX Strategy at Citi Research. Prior to rejoining Citi, Daniel was a macro strategist at Millennium. Daniel previously worked at Citi from 2012-2021 as an FX Strategist in Citi Markets in both New York and London. He began his career at BlackRock

Dan Tobon, Head of G10 FX Strategy

Rob Rowe, Citi's U.S. Region Director of Research, sits down with Head of G10 FX Strategy Dan Tobon to discuss wild cards for 2026. They explore a range of scenarios, from the direction of the Middle East conflict and European growth to asset bubbles and private markets.

/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Research_Podcast_E72_Transcript.pdf

E72: Wild Cards – Tail Risk in an Increasingly Fragile World

<ul><li>Over $356 billion in global branded drug sales are at risk due to patent expiry between 2023-2028, pushing pharmaceutical companies to replace 46% of sales by 2033</li><li>Geopolitical instabilities and elevated foreign exchange volatility underscore the urgency for treasury organizations to prioritize currency exposure management and financial stability</li><li>The future of treasury innovation includes greater adoption of digital assets like stablecoins and tokenized deposits to facilitate always-on liquidity and near-instant cross-border payments</li></ul>

Artificial intelligence and digital technologies are transforming treasury functions across the healthcare, consumer, and wellness sectors, impacting revenue, costs, and liquidity. Treasury must evolve from an operational role to a strategic, data-driven capability to navigate challenges like pharmaceutical patent cliffs and changing consumer behaviors. Optimizing working capital, enhancing liquidity management, and adopting advanced treasury practices are crucial for competitive advantage and sustained success in this rapidly evolving environment.

Read the full report

Artificial intelligence and digital technologies are transforming treasury functions across the healthcare, consumer, and wellness sectors, impacting revenue, costs, and liquidity. Read more.

An Era of Accelerated Change: Redefining Treasury for Consumer and Healthcare Companies

Rebuilding Ukraine - The Role of Private Capital in Post-Conflict Recovery

The cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction is estimated at $588 billion over the next decade.1 This massive undertaking will require private capital alongside public funding, as international governments are unlikely to fully finance recovery.This Citi Institute report examines how private investment can contribute through foreign direct investment (FDI), venture capital, public-private partnerships and co-investment with international financial institutions (IFIs). We see three drivers of investment into Ukraine: EU integration and reforms, global defense spending priorities and demand for critical minerals.However, challenges remain including ongoing security risks, potential human capital shortages and the geographical mismatch between investment supply (favoring western Ukraine) and reconstruction demand (concentrated in eastern frontline regions).

<hr>1. Massive reconstruction cost: Ukraine needs $588 billion over 10 years – almost three times its 2025 GDP.2<hr>2. Top sectors damaged: Energy, transport, and housing each require approximately $90 billion in reconstruction funding.<hr>3. Private capital will find investable opportunities: While public funding will remain essential, many of Ukraine’s reconstruction needs can become bankable projects.<hr>4. FDI could reach $87-145 billion: Depending on reform progress and business confidence, our scenario analysis suggests that foreign direct investment could contribute 15-25% of needs.<hr>5. Defense and minerals: Ukraine’s defense innovation and critical raw materials are likely to play a key role in the country's reconstruction.<hr>6. IFIs mobilize additional capital: International financial institutions could attract €20-50 billion in private co-investment over a decade.3

1 World Bank Group, Ukraine: Fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5)2 World Bank Group, Ukraine: Fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5)&nbsp;3 Citi Institute analysis of American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, UNCTAD, Statista, Global Data

The Role of Private Capital in Post-Conflict Recovery

This Citi Institute report examines how private investment can contribute through foreign direct investment (FDI), venture capital, public-private partnerships and co-investment with international financial institutions (IFIs).

Rebuilding Ukraine 

<ul><li>Google's new TurboQuant technology revolutionizes AI memory compression reducing large language model memory usage by six times while maintaining accuracy</li><li>This AI innovation enables powerful models on edge devices like smartphones driving new demand for high-performance memory and enhancing data privacy and speed</li><li>Anticipated by 2028, the full deployment of personal AI with TurboQuant will require significant advancements in high-bandwidth memory and mobile hardware</li></ul>

Rob Rowe, Citi's U.S. Regional Director of Research, sits down with Head of Semiconductor and IT Hardware Analysis Peter Lee to explore the implications of TurboQuant, a new memory-compression technology that could eliminate bottlenecks in running AI large language models. As the two discuss, this innovation could have profound impacts on memory and storage demand.This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2026 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Rob Rowe is the Head of Citi Research’s Global Strategy &amp; Macro Group (GSMG) as well as Head of Research for the Americas. GSMG unites all of Citi’s Economists with Fixed Income, FX, Equity and Commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world’s major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 35 years in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney, Harris Upham &amp; Company in 1989 working in investment banking, fixed income sales, and research. In addition to his overall responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team. Rob is a graduate of Hartwick College with a BA in European History and the Theatre. He is also a graduate of the American Academy of Dramatic Arts.

Rob Rowe, U.S. Regional Director of Research, Citi 

Peter Lee is a Co-Head of Global Tech &amp; Communication and a Managing Director at Citi Research covering the Semiconductor and IT Hardware Sector, including memory, handsets, EV batteries, and displays. Prior to joining Citi in 2017, he worked at Samsung Electronics for 12 years in various positions in the semiconductor engineering, marketing, and strategy divisions. Peter has been ranked #1 for South Korea Research since 2021 and was ranked Top 3 for Semiconductors in the Institutional Investor Pan-Asia Research Survey in 2022. Peter received his Master’s Degree from KAIST (the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology), South Korea.&nbsp;

Peter Lee, Semiconductors & IT Hardware Analyst, Citi

Rob Rowe, Citi's U.S. Regional Director of Research, sits down with Head of Semiconductor and IT Hardware Analysis Peter Lee to explore the implications of TurboQuant, a new memory-compression technology that could eliminate bottlenecks in running AI large language models. As the two discuss, this innovation could have profound impacts on memory and storage demand.

/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Episode-73-TRANSCRIPT.pdf

E73: A Potential Solution for AI’s Memory Crunch? 

<ul><li>Ukraine has demonstrated strong economic resilience, with many companies recovering to or exceeding pre-war performance</li><li>The tech sector has grown into a $6.7 billion industry, driven by innovation including nationwide digital systems</li><li>Investor interest is rising, supported by Ukraine’s economic adaptability, workforce strength, and closer alignment with Western markets</li><li>Significant opportunities exist for private investment and public-private partnerships, particularly in energy, transport, and digital infrastructure</li></ul>

In this episode of Citi Institute podcast, host Alex Miller is joined by Alexander McWhorter, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head for Ukraine and Lenna Koszarny, Founding Partner and CEO of Horizon Capital.&nbsp;They explore Ukraine’s remarkable economic resilience during the war, with many companies rebounding to pre-war revenue levels and others continuing to expand.Alexander McWhorter highlights the strength of Ukraine’s economy, with GDP surpassing pre-war levels despite the ongoing conflict.Lenna Koszarny outlines the scale of investment needed for reconstruction, emphasizing the significant opportunity for both private and public capital to support Ukraine’s recovery and long-term growth.Together, they examine the opportunities ahead and the potential for sustained growth despite continued challenges. Citigroup (“Citi”) and Horizon Capital are not affiliated and are independent of each other. Horizon Capital maintains a client relationship with Citi through Citi Investment Banking. The speakers’ views are their own and may not necessarily reflect the views of Citi or any of its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

Alex McWhorter is the Citi Country Officer (CCO) and Corporate Bank Head for Ukraine. He is responsible for Citi's franchise in Ukraine including leading the business and protecting the franchise.Alex joined Citi in New York in 2003 in Market Risk Management, before moving to Corporate and Investment Banking in 2007 covering the Power sector. He served as a Director in the Risk CAO office for over three years where his responsibilities included leading coordination of Citi's CCAR efforts. Most recently before Ukraine, he served as UK Chief Risk Officer, and was responsible for the risk management of Citi's UK legal entities as well as supporting the EMEA CRO on regional support and crisis management.Alex holds a Masters of Business Arts in Management from New York University, Stern School of Business, and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Psychology from Williams College, Massachusetts, United States.Vice-Chair of the Board of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. Chairman of the Board of Junior Achievement Ukraine &nbsp;

Alexander McWhorter, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head for Ukraine

Lenna Koszarny is Founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer of Horizon Capital, the leading private equity firm in Ukraine with over $1.8B in assets under management, backed by 40+ institutional investors with a capital base exceeding $700B. Under her leadership, Horizon Capital has raised over $1b since the 2014 invasion, as well as catalyzed the largest investment in Ukraine in decades, a $1.5bn acquisition and capital expansion of Ukraine-based telecom players Datagroup-Volia and Lifecell by telecom and tech entrepreneur Xavier Niel. Ms. Koszarny is credited with the Forbes «2024 Deal of the Year» for attracting this $1.5B telecom investment for Ukraine, honored with 2025 Deal Innovation Award from the Global Private Capital Association for Datagroup-Volia-Lifecell Transaction, she was also recognized for raising the largest fund for Ukraine – $350M – during these challenging period for the country. In February 2022, Horizon Capital was honored as 2021 Firm of the Year for Central and Eastern Europe by Private Equity International.Ms. Koszarny’s leadership has been recognized nationally and internationally, including Ukrainska Pravda’s «Top 100 Leaders of Ukraine: Beyond What is Possible» rating in November 2024, its &nbsp;«Top 100 Power Women Leaders» in March 2024 and its «Top 100 Leaders of Ukraine During Wartime» in November 2023, and her inclusion in Forbes Ukraine’s « Top 50 Women Leaders Leading Ukraine to Victory» in May 2023. In November 2024, she was included in the inaugural National Security News «Top 50 Women in Security List», the Financiers category. Ms. Koszarny leads Horizon Capital in an $12T industry with circa 15% senior women, inspiring greater engagement of women in private equity and investing. Under her leadership, HCGF IV is the first 2X Flagship Fund in Central and Eastern Europe, 1 of circa 10 in total, and 1 of only 2 globally that are led by a woman Founding Partner &amp; CEO. She is a Board Member of the Global Private Capital Association (GPCA) uniting firms managing over $2TN in assets; an elected Member of the Mid-Market Platform Council of Invest Europe; a Member of the Private Equity Women Investor Network (PEWIN); a Founding Member of the Ukraine House Davos Organizing Committee, and in July 2022, was recognized in Private Equity International’s 2022 Women of Influence in Private Markets list. She is also Executive Vice-President of Ukraine Moldova American Enterprise Fund (UMAEF, formerly Western NIS Enterprise Fund), a $285M US-government backed fund; Chair of the Board of Directors, American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, whose members have invested over $50B in Ukraine; a Member of the Board of the Ukrainian Startup Fund launched by the Government of Ukraine (2019-2025); a Member of the Supervisory Board of Ukrainian Leadership Academy; and, served as the first Vice-Chair of the Advisory Council of Kyiv-Mohyla Business School.On August 24, 2020, the 29th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky awarded Ms. Koszarny with an Order of Merit for Service to Ukraine, third level, for her contribution to the country’s economy and investment climate. She is also a recipient of a Commemorative Medal issued on the occasion of the 25th Anniversary of Independence by the President of Ukraine. In May 2024, she was awarded the 2024 Tryzub Leadership Award by The Myhal Family Foundation, in partnership with The Shevchenko Foundation. Ms. Koszarny is a CPA and a 1991 HBA graduate of Ivey Business School. She has been residing and working in Kyiv, Ukraine for over 30 years.

Lenna Koszarny, Founding Partner and CEO of Horizon Capital

Read the full Citi GPS Rebuilding Ukraine Report here 

How will Ukraine's strength power a bright future?

In this episode of Citi Institute podcast, host Alex Miller is joined by Alexander McWhorter, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head for Ukraine and Lenna Koszarny, Founding Partner and CEO of Horizon Capital.&nbsp;

/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/CIP_The_Reconstruction_of_Ukraine_Transcript_FINAL.pdf

The Reconstruction of Ukraine

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