Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (April 21, 2026)

• Consensus continues to expect the next Banxico rate cut of 25bps at the June meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bps cut in June. Of the 36 respondents, 17 expect the next cut at the June meeting (as in the last survey), while 14 expect the next cut at the May meeting (from 11 in the last survey), and six after June. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 6.75% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.10 by end-2026, from 18.33 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.0 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.75, from 18.89 a fortnight ago.
• For 1H April, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.08% and 0.19%, respectively. For the full month of April, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.18% MoM, or 4.43% YoY, lower than March’s rate of 4.59%, higher than a fortnight ago at 0.15% MoM. Core inflation was practically unchanged at 0.32% MoM in April from 0.31%MoM in the last survey, or 4.27% YoY, lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.45% YoY.
• Medium term inflation projections increased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is now at 4.26% from 4.23% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was kept at 3.80%; for the core component, it increased marginally to 3.80% from 3.79% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is now at 3.78%, 8 basis points higher from the previous survey. This is the first increase for medium term expectations in the year.
• GDP growth expectations remain stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 was kept at 1.4% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.8% to 1.8%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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