Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (April 7, 2026)

• Consensus now expects the next Banxico rate cut of 25bps at the June meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bps cut in June (from May in the previous survey). Of the 38 respondents, 17 expect the next cut at the June meeting (from 6 in the previous survey), while 11 expect the next cut at the May meeting, and seven more after June. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.75% to 6.25%. For end-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations strengthened at the margin. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.33 by end-2026, from 18.35 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.0 to 19.10. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.89, from 19.0 a fortnight ago.
• For March, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.90% and 0.40%, respectively. For the full month of March, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.90% MoM or 4.63% YoY, higher than February’s figure at 4.02% YoY and higher than the survey a fortnight ago (0.52% MoM). Core inflation in March was kept at 0.40% MoM, or 4.47% YoY, from the last survey, slightly lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.50% YoY. For April, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.15% MoM and 0.31% MoM, respectively.
• Headline inflation expectations increased for 2026 y/e. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is now at 4.23% from 4.10% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For yearend 2027, the headline inflation expectation was kept at 3.80%; for the core component, it increased to 3.79% from 3.76% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.70%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• GDP growth median expectation for 2026 is reduced. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 decreased to 1.4% from 1.5% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.8% to 1.8%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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