Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (March 20, 2026)

• Consensus now expects the next Banxico rate cut of 25bps in May meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bps cut in May (from the previous survey In March). Of the 37 respondents, 17 expect the next cut at the May meeting (from 15 in the previous survey), while 14 expect the next cut at the March meeting (from 18 in the previous survey), and six more in June. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remained unchanged at 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 6.75% to 6.0%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations weakened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.35 by end-2026, from 18.18 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.10. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 19.00, from 18.70 a fortnight ago.
• For 1H March, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.33% and 0.22%, respectively. For the full month of March, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.52% MoM, or 4.24% YoY, higher than February’s rate of 4.02%, higher than a fortnight ago at 0.39%MoM. Core inflation was kept at 0.40% MoM in March from the last survey, or 4.47% YoY, slightly lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.50% YoY.
• Headline inflation expectations increased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is now at 4.10% from 4.00% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median stayed at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, headline inflation expectation increased to 3.80% from 3.78%; for the core component, it remained at 3.76% from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.70%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations are stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 stayed at 1.5% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.8% to 1.8%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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