Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Feb 20, 2026)

• Consensus continues to see the next Banxico rate cut of 25bps in May but with a high division. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bps cut in May. Of the 35 respondents, 16 expect the next cut at the May meeting (from 20 in the previous survey), while 15 expect it in March and four at the June meeting. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remained unchanged at 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 6.75% to 6.0%. For end-2027, the median expectation is 6.5%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%.
• Peso expectations strengthen again. The consensus expects USDMXN at 18.20 by end-2026, from 18.35 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.10. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.76, from 19.00 a fortnight ago.
• For 1H February, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.18% and 0.26%, respectively. For the full month of February, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.36% MoM, or 3.88% YoY, higher than January’s rate of 3.79%, slightly lower than a fortnight ago at 0.37%MoM. Core inflation is now estimated at 0.49% MoM in February, or 4.53% YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.52% YoY and higher than the previous survey at 0.46% MoM.
• Core inflation expectations increased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 stayed at 4.0% from a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median increased to 4.15% from 4.10% in the last survey.  For year-end 2027, headline inflation expectation increased to 3.75% from 3.73; for the core component, it increased to 3.74% from 3.71% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is 3.70%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations remain stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 remains at 1.4% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.6% to 1.8%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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