Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Feb 4, 2026)

• Consensus continues to see the next Banxico rate cut of 25bps in May, with the policy rate at year-end 2026 and 2027 both at 6.50%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bp cut in May. Of the 35 respondents, 20 expect the next cut at the May meeting (from 18 in the previous survey), while 10 expect it before and three at the June meeting; two had no response. The median forecast for the rate by end-2026 remained unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%. For end2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%.
• Peso expectations strengthen again. The consensus expects USDMXN at 18.35 by end-2026, from 18.75 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 20.30. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 19.00 from 19.07 a fortnight ago.
• For January, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.42% and 0.58%, respectively. For the full month of January, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.42% MoM or 3.83% YoY, higher than December’s 3.69% YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.51% MoM). Core inflation in January is now estimated at 0.58% MoM or 4.49% YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.33% YoY and slightly higher than the previous survey at 0.57% MoM. For February, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.37% MoM and 0.46% MoM, respectively.
• Most inflation expectations increased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 stayed at 4.0% from a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median increased to 4.1% from 4.0% in the last survey. For year-end 2027, headline and core inflation expectations increased to 3.75% and 3.71%, respectively, both from 3.7% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is 3.7%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• Consensus expects more GDP growth in 2026. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 increased to 1.4% from 1.3% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.6% to 1.8%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice.  This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments.  The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction.  The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results.  © 2026 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.