Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Jan. 20, 2026)

• Consensus continues to see next Banxico rate cut of 25bps in May, with policy rate by Y/E 2026 and 2027 both at 6.50%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bp cut in May. Out of the 35 respondents, 18 expect the next cut at the May meeting (from 13 in the previous survey). The median forecast for the rate by Y/E 2026 remained unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%. For Y/E 2027, the median expectation is at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%.
• Peso expectations strengthen. The consensus expects USDMXN at 18.75 by Y/E 2026, from 19.00 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 20.30. For Y/E 2027, consensus expects USDMXN at 19.07 from 19.50 a fortnight ago.
• For 1H January, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.40% and 0.47%, respectively. For the full month of January, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.51% MoM, or 3.92% YoY, higher than December’s rate of 3.69%, a fortnight ago. Core inflation is now estimated at 0.57% MoM in January, or 4.49% YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.33% YoY and higher than the previous survey at 0.48% MoM.
• Stable inflation expectations for year-end. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2026 were kept at 4.0% from a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was also kept at 4.0%. For Y/E 2027, headline and core inflation expectations were both at 3.70%, practically unchanged from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 was at 3.70%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• Stable GDP growth forecasts. Consensus continues to project GDP growth at 0.4% in 2025, the same as a fortnight ago. For 2026, the median GDP growth projection was kept at 1.3% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.4% to 1.8%. Finally, for 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth at 1.8% as the last survey.

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