Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Jan. 6, 2026)

• Consensus see next Banxico rate cut of 25bps in May, with policy rate by Y/E 2026 and 2027 both at 6.50%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bp cut in May. Out of the 35 respondents, 13 expect the next cut at the May meeting, while 14 expect it before and five after; three had no response. The median forecast for the rate by Y/E 2026 remained unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 6.0%. For Y/E 2027, the median expectation is at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.0% to 5.50%.
• Stable peso expectations for 2026. The consensus expects USDMXN at 19.00 by Y/E 2026, as in our previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 20.30. For Y/E 2027, consensus expects USDMXN at 19.50.
• Consensus projects headline and core inflation at 3.8% and 4.3% YoY, respectively, for Y/E 2026. Survey participants forecast a 0.34% MoM CPI increase in December, lower than the previous survey (0.50%). Core inflation is estimated at 0.42% MoM in December, lower than the last survey (0.47%). For January 2026, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.51% MoM, and core inflation at 0.48% MoM.
• Headline Inflation expectations for Y/E 2026 increased. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2026 increased at the margin to 4.0% from a fortnight ago at 3.90%; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.0%. For Y/E 2027, headline and core inflation expectations were at 3.70% and 3.71%, respectively. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 was at 3.70%, practically unchanged from the previous survey.
• Stable GDP growth forecasts. Consensus continues to project GDP growth at 0.4% in 2025, the same as a fortnight ago. For 2026, the median GDP growth projection was increased at 1.3% from 1.2% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.6% to 1.8%. Finally, for 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth at 1.8%.

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2026 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.