Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Dec. 5, 2025)

• Consensus continues to expect a 25bp rate cut in December’s Banxico meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, all 32 participants expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be in December 2025, and all expect a 25bp cut as the next move. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stands at 7.00% as in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation stayed at 6.50% from a fortnight ago, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.
• Peso expectations continue to decrease. Consensus now projects USDMXN at 18.51 for Y/E 2025 from 18.75 in the last survey, and the median expectation for Y/E 2026 now stands at 19.20 from 19.31 in the last survey.
• For November, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.55% and 0.12%, respectively. For the full month of November, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.55%MoM, 3.68%YoY, higher than October’s rate of 3.57%YoY and higher than the survey a fortnight ago (0.50%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.12%MoM in November, or 4.36%YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.28%YoY and the same as the previous survey. For December, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.45%MoM and 0.40%MoM, respectively.
• Inflation median expectations increased for Y/E 2025 and Y/E 2026. The headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 increased to 3.79% from 3.77% in the previous survey, while for the core component, it was kept at 4.23%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation increased to 3.95% from 3.91%, while the core inflation median estimate now stands at 3.89% from 3.83%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.
• GDP growth median expectations decreased for 2025 and 2026. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP is now expected at 0.4%, with estimates ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%, from 0.5% in the previous survey. For 2026, it decreased to 1.3% to 1.4% compared to a fortnight ago.

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