Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (November 20, 2025)

• Consensus expects a 25bp rate cut in December’s Banxico meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, most participants expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be in December 2025, and all expect a 25bp cut as the next move. Out of 35 participants, 33 expect a cut in December 2025, while one expects it in February 2026. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stands at 7.00% as in the previous survey. Only two participants expect it at 7.25%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation stayed at 6.50% from a fortnight ago, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.
• Peso expectations continue to decrease. Consensus now projects USDMXN at 18.75 for Y/E 2025 from 18.80 in the last survey, and the median expectation for Y/E 2026 now stands at 19.31 from 19.50 in the last survey.
• For 1H November, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.40% and 0.05%, respectively. For the full month of November, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.50% MoM, or 3.63% YoY, higher than October’s rate of 3.57% and slightly lower from 0.53% as a fortnight ago. Core inflation is now estimated at 0.12% MoM in November, or 4.36% YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.28% YoY and lower than the previous survey at 0.15% MoM.
• Core inflation median expectations increase for Y/E 2025 and Y/E 2026. The headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 declined to 3.77% from 3.80% in the previous survey, while for the core component it is now projected at 4.23% from 4.20% a fortnight ago. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation increased to 3.91% from 3.90%, while the core inflation median estimate now stands at 3.83% from 3.80%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.
• GDP growth median expectations remain stable. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP stayed at 0.5%, with estimates ranging from 0.1% to 0.7%. For 2026, it stayed at 1.4% compared to the previous survey.

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