Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (June 22, 2026)

• Most respondents expect no near-term Banxico rate move, with the policy rate seen on hold through year-end 2026. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate shows no change in the near term, with the majority of participants not penciling in an adjustment until 2027 or later. Of the 35 respondents, 28 expect no near-term move, while 2 expect a cut in December 2026, and 6 participants expect a move during 2027. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.50% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.92 by end-2026, from 18.00 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.15 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, as a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 19.96.
• For 1H June, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively. For the full month of June 2026, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.16% MoM, 3.81% YoY, lower than May’s rate of 3.94%, lower than a fortnight ago at 0.26% MoM. Core inflation edged down to 0.32% MoM in June from 0.34% MoM in the last survey, or 4.11%, lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.19% YoY.
• Medium-term inflation projections decreased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 4.23% from 4.35% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation decreased to 3.80% from 3.90% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it remained unchanged at 3.85% from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.75%, 5 basis points lower from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations decreased for this year. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 decreased to 1.1% from 1.2% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.

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