Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (May 20, 2026)

• Consensus expects no change in Banxico policy rate at least in 2026 and 2027. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate does not see any move in the policy rate at least this year and the next. Of the 33 respondents, 25 expect no movement, while 7 expect the next movement in 2027 (three hikes versus four cuts) and one expects a cut in December 2026. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.50% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.00 by end-2026, 10 cents lower than in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.58, from 18.75 a fortnight ago.
• For 1H May, consensus projects headline and core inflation at -0.14% and 0.15%, respectively. For the full month of May, analysts expect headline inflation at -0.10% MoM, or 4.05% YoY, lower than April’s rate of 4.45% and lower than a fortnight ago at -0.02% MoM. Core inflation was practically unchanged at 0.26% MoM in May from 0.28%MoM in the last survey, or 4.22% YoY, lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.26% YoY.
• Headline Inflation projections decreased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is now at 4.30% from 4.35% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation decreased to 3.80% from 3.87% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it stood at 3.85% unchanged from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.78%, one basis point lower from the previous survey. 
• GDP growth expectations decreased for this year. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 decreased to 1.1% from 1.2% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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