Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (June 5, 2026)

• Consensus continues to expect no change in Banxico policy rate at least in 2026 and 2027. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate does not see any move in the policy rate at least this year and the next. Of the 35 respondents, 27 expect no movement, while 6 expect the next movement in 2027 (three hikes versus three cuts) and two expect a 25bps cut in December 2026. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.50% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations strengthened for 2027. The consensus continues to expect USDMXN to be at 18.00 by end-2026, with expectations ranging from 17.0 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, from 18.58 a fortnight ago.
• For May, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at -0.11% and 0.24%, respectively. For the full month of May, analysts expect headline inflation at -0.11% MoM or 4.04% YoY, lower than April’s figure of 4.45% YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (-0.10% MoM). Core inflation in May is expected at 0.24% MoM, or 4.21% YoY, from 0.26% in the last survey, and lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.26% YoY. For June, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.26% MoM and 0.34% MoM, respectively.
• Headline Inflation projections increased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is now at 4.35% from 4.30% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation increased to 3.90% from 3.80% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it stood at 3.85% unchanged from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.80%, two basis point higher from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations increased marginally for this year. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 increased to 1.2% from 1.1% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.7% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey.

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