Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (October 7, 2025)

Consensus expects a 25bp rate cut in the November meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, all 39 participants expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be a 25bp cut in November 2025. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stands at 7.00% as the previous survey. Only 6 participants expect it at 7.25%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation stayed at 6.50% from the last survey, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.

Peso expectations were reduced again for 2025 and 2026. Consensus currently projects the USDMXN at 19.00 for Y/E 2025 from 19.26 in the last survey. For Y/E 2026, USDMXN expectations were reduced to 19.50 from 19.87 compared with the previous survey.

For September, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.26% and 0.33%, respectively. For the full month of September, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.26%MoM, 3.79%YoY, higher than August’s rate of 3.57%YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.28%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.33%MoM in September, or 4.28%YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 4.23%YoY and higher than the previous survey at 0.30%MoM. For October, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.45%MoM and 0.26%MoM, respectively.

Core inflation median expectations increased for 2025 and 2026 Y/E. Headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 declined slightly to 3.96% from 3.99% in the previous survey, while for the core component it increased to 4.20% from 4.12%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation increased marginally to 3.80% from 3.79%, while the core inflation median estimate increased to 3.78% from 3.70%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.

GDP growth median expectations remained stable. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP stayed at 0.5%, with estimates ranging from -0.1% to 1.0%. For 2026, it was kept at 1.3% compared to the previous survey. 

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