Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (August 20, 2026)

• Most respondents foresee no near-term change in the monetary policy rate. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the majority of the 37 respondents do not anticipate an imminent move in the policy rate. Of the 37 respondents, 7 expect the next adjustment to be a hike and 6 expect to be a cut further ahead, while the remaining 24 see no change in the near term. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.50%. For end-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.75% to 7.25%.
• Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.68 by end-2026, from 17.90 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.24, 26 cents less than a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.40 to 19.96. 
• For 1H August, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.12% and 0.14%, respectively. For the full month of August, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.28%MoM, or 3.34%YoY, higher than July’s figure of 3.12%YoY and slightly lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.29%). Core inflation in August is expected at 0.25%MoM, or 3.98%YoY, as in the last survey, and marginally higher than the figure from the previous month of 3.95%YoY.
• Inflation expectations are stable. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 4.00% from 4.02% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.00% as in the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was kept at 3.80%; for the core component, it remained unchanged at 3.80% from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.73%, 3 basis points higher from the previous survey. 
• GDP growth expectations were kept stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 stands at 1.2%, as in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.6% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.

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