Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (July 7, 2026)

• Median end-of-year rate consensus remains stable. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the majority of respondents (27 out of 37) do not specify a date for the next monetary policy rate adjustment. Among the 10 participants who do, expectations are split between five anticipating a 25bps hike and five a 25bps cut, with the timeline for the move scattered between late 2026 and late 2027. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.75%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is also unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.75% to 7.25%.
• Peso expectations remain stable. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.92 by end-2026, unchanged from the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, also unchanged from a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.40 to 19.96.
• For June, consensus projects monthly headline inflation at -0.15% and core inflation at 0.32%. For the full month of June, analysts expect headline inflation at -0.15% MoM, lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.16% MoM). Core inflation was unchanged at 0.32% MoM from the last survey. For July, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.34% MoM and 0.31% MoM, respectively.
• Medium-term inflation projections show mixed slight revisions. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 decreased to 4.15% from 4.23% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.20% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was revised upwards to 3.84% from 3.80%; for the core component, it remained unchanged at 3.85%. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.79%, 4 basis points higher than the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations remain stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 was kept at 1.1% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.
   

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