Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (August 5, 2026)

• Most respondents foresee no near-term change in the monetary policy rate. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the majority of the 35 respondents do not anticipate an imminent move in the policy rate. Of the 35 respondents, 7 expect the next adjustment to be a hike and 6 expect to be a cut further ahead, while the remaining 22 see no change in the near term. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.75%. For end-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.75% to 7.25%.
• Peso expectations are stable. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.90 by end-2026, as in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, as a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.40 to 19.96. 
• For July, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.04% and 0.22%, respectively. For the full month of July, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.04%MoM, or 3.13%YoY, lower than June’s figure of 3.37%YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.14%). Core inflation in July is expected at 0.22%MoM, or 3.94%YoY, from 0.23% in the last survey, and lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.03%YoY. For August, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.29% MoM, with the core component projected at 0.25% MoM in the same month.
• Medium-term inflation projections declined. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 4.02% from 4.09% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median decreased to 4.00% from 4.10% in the last survey. For yearend 2027, the headline inflation expectation was kept at 3.80%; for the core component, it remained unchanged at 3.80% from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.70%, 6 basis points lower from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations improved for this year. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 increased to 1.2% from 1.1% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.6%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.
• Modified calendar: Please note that the survey originally scheduled for September 7 will be moved to Friday, September 4.
   

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