Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (July 21, 2026)

• The consensus expects stable rates ahead. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate expects no move in the policy rate in 2026 and 2027. However, eight respondents out of 35 expect a rate adjustment, with four expecting a cut and four expecting a hike. The earliest move expected is a 25bps cut in December 2026. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.50%. For end-2027, the median expectation is also unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.75% to 7.25%.
• Peso expectations are largely stable. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.90 by end-2026, a slight strengthening from 17.92 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, unchanged from a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.40 to 19.93.
• For 1H July, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.10% and 0.16%, respectively. For the full month of July, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.14% MoM, lower than a fortnight ago at 0.34% MoM. Core inflation was also lower at 0.23% MoM in July from 0.31% MoM in the last survey.
• Medium-term inflation projections decreased. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 4.09% from 4.15% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median decreased to 4.10% from 4.20% in the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was revised downwards to 3.80% from 3.84%; for the core component, it decreased to 3.80% from 3.85% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.76%, 3 basis points lower than the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations remain stable. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 was kept at 1.1% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1% to 2.3%.  

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