Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (October 21, 2025)

• Consensus continues to expect a 25bp rate cut in the November meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, most participants expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be in November 2025, and all expect a 25bp cut as the next move. Out of 37 participants, 36 expect a cut in November 2025, while one expects it in December 2025. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stands at 7.00% as in the previous survey. Only five participants expect it at 7.25%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation stayed at 6.50% from a fortnight ago, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.
• Peso expectations kept stable. Consensus continues to project USDMXN at 19.00 and 19.50 for Y/E 2025 and Y/E 2026, respectively, as in the previous survey.
• For 1H October, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.36% and 0.20%, respectively. For the full month of October, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.45% MoM, or 3.66% YoY, lower than September’s rate of 3.76% and the same as a fortnight ago. Core inflation is now estimated at 0.28% MoM in October, or 4.28% YoY, the same as the figure from the previous month of 4.28% YoY and higher than the previous survey at 0.26% MoM.
• Core inflation median expectations increased for 2026 Y/E. Headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 declined to 3.90% from 3.96% in the previous survey, while for the core component was kept at 4.20%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation stands at 3.80%, while the core inflation median estimate increased to 3.80% from 3.78%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.
• GDP growth median expectations remained stable. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP stayed at 0.5%, with estimates ranging from -0.1% to 0.8%. For 2026, it was kept at 1.3% compared to the previous survey.

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