Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (November 5, 2025)

• Consensus continues to expect a 25bp rate cut in tomorrow’s meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, most participants expect the next move in the monetary policy rate to be in November 2025, and all expect a 25bp cut as the next move. Out of 37 participants, 36 expect a cut in November 2025, while one expects it in December 2025. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stands at 7.00% as in the previous survey. Only four participants expect it at 7.25%. For Y/E 2026, the policy rate median expectation stayed at 6.50% from a fortnight ago, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.
• Peso expectations kept stable. Consensus now projects USDMXN at 18.80 for 2025 y/e from 19.00 in the last survey and continues to expect 19.50 for Y/E 2026.
• For October, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.36% and 0.27%, respectively. For the full month of October, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.36%MoM, 3.56%YoY, lower than September’s rate of 3.76%YoY and lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.45%MoM). Core inflation is now estimated at 0.27%MoM in September, or 4.27%YoY, lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.28%YoY and slightly lower than the previous survey at 0.28%MoM. For November, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.53%MoM and 0.15%MoM, respectively.
• Headline inflation median expectations decreased for Y/E 2025 and increased for Y/E 2026. Headline inflation median projection for Y/E 2025 declined to 3.80% from 3.90% in the previous survey, while for the core component it was kept at 4.20%. For Y/E 2026, the headline median expectation increased to 3.90% from 3.80%, while the core inflation median estimate stands at 3.80%, both compared to the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.
• GDP growth median expectation increased for 2026. The median growth estimate for 2025 GDP stayed at 0.5%, with estimates ranging from –0.1% to 0.7%. For 2026, it was increased to 1.4% from 1.3% compared to the previous survey.
   

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