Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (November 4, 2026)

• Most participants continue to expect no rate move in the next monetary policy meeting. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the majority of participants do not expect a move in the near term. Of the 36 respondents, 20 do not expect any move, 6 expect the next rate cut in tomorrow’s meeting, while 10 expect a move during 2027. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.50% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 6.00%
• Peso expectations weakened relative to the previous survey. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50 by end-2026, from 18.20 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 16.80 to 19.00. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 19.00, from 18.60 a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.90.
• For October, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.56% and 0.31%, respectively. For the full month of October, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.56% MoM, 3.66%YoY, higher than the survey a fortnight ago (0.53% MoM) and higher than September’s rate at 3.45%YoY. Core inflation in October is expected to be at 0.31%MoM, 3.77%YoY, higher than the survey a fortnight ago (0.25% MoM), and slightly higher than a month ago at 3.75%. For November, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.67% MoM and 0.21% MoM, respectively.
• Inflation projections were broadly stable. The median projection for headline inflation for 2026 y/e is at 3.90%, unchanged from the last survey; for the core component, the median was also kept at 3.80% from the last survey. For 2027 y/e, the headline inflation expectation edged down to 3.85% from 3.86% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it increased marginally to 3.81% from 3.80% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.70%, 5 basis points lower from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations increased. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 increased to 1.8% from 1.4% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.9% to 2.1%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.9%, higher than the 1.8% in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.2% to 2.3%.

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