Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (September 22, 2026)

• Consensus expects Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% through end-2027, with only a minority of participants anticipating any further move. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for no change, as 25 of the 36 respondents do not anticipate any adjustment before end-2027. Of the 11 respondents who do expect a move in 2027, six of them forecast a 25bps hike and five a 25bps cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, a level shared by all survey participants. For end-2027, the median expectation is also 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.50% to 5.75%.
• Peso expectations are broadly stable for 2026 but point to a modest strengthening for 2027. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.50 by end-2026, unchanged from the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 18.30. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.00, from 18.07 a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.50.
• For 1H September, the consensus projects biweekly headline and core inflation at 0.28% and 0.20%, respectively. For the full month of September, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.37% MoM, 3.40%YoY, higher than August’s figure of 3.26%YoY, lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.39% MoM). Core inflation for September is expected at 0.27% MoM, 3.82%YoY, also lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.32% MoM), and marginally higher than the figure from the previous month of 3.88%YoY.
• Inflation projections declined for 2026, while the medium-term average held steady. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 3.93% from 4.00% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median declined to 3.92% from 4.00% in the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was revised upwards to 3.83% from 3.80% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it was kept at 3.80%, unchanged from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.75%, unchanged from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations improved slightly for this year and remained stable for 2027. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 rose to 1.4% from 1.3% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.8% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.1%.

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