Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (October 6, 2026)

• The consensus view remains that Banxico will keep the policy rate at 6.50% through end-2027, with few participants anticipating any move. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for no change through end-2026. Of the 37 respondents, 25 expect no move for 2027, while 6 expect a hike of 25bps, and 5 expect a cut of 25bps for the next year. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with all estimates at 6.50%. For end-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 6.00%.
• Peso expectations weakened relative to the previous survey. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.00 by end-2026, from 17.50 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 16.80 to 18.80. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, from 18.00 a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.80.
• For September, the consensus projects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.43% and 0.23%, respectively. For September, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.43% MoM, 3.46%YoY, higher than August’s figure of 3.26%YoY and higher than the survey a fortnight ago (0.37% MoM). Core inflation in September is expected at 0.23% MoM, 3.78%YoY, lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.27% MoM) and lower than the figure from the previous month of 3.88%YoY. For October, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.53% MoM and 0.29% MoM, respectively.
• Inflation projections declined slightly for 2026 but remained stable for 2027. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 3.90% from 3.93% a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median decreased to 3.88% from 3.92% in the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation remained unchanged at 3.83%; for the core component, it was kept at 3.80% in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.73%, two basis points lower from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations remained stable for 2026 and 2027. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 was kept at 1.4% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.8% to 1.7%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.

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