Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (October 20, 2026)

• The consensus view remains that Banxico will keep the policy rate at 6.50% through end-2027, with few participants anticipating any move. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for no change through end-2026. Of the 37 respondents, 25 expect no change in the policy rate over the period covered, while among the 12 expecting a move: 3 during 2026, and the rest 9 during 2027. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 6.00%.
• Peso expectations weakened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.20 by end-2026, from 18.00 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 16.80 to 18.90. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.60, from 18.50 a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.80.
• For 1H October, the consensus projects biweekly headline and core inflation at 0.38% and 0.17%, respectively. For the full month of October, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.53% MoM, 3.63%YoY, unchanged from the survey a fortnight ago (0.53% MoM) and higher than September’s rate, 3.45%YoY. Core inflation in October is expected at 0.25% MoM, 3.71%YoY, lower than the survey a fortnight ago (0.29% MoM), slightly lower than a month ago at 3.75%. For the next 12 months, consensus expects annual inflation at 4.06%, lower than 4.10% a fortnight ago.
• Core inflation expectations were reduced for 2026 y/e, while headline expectations for 2027 y/e were increased. The median projection for headline inflation for 2026 y/e is at 3.90%, unchanged from a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median decreased to 3.80% from 3.88% in the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was revised upwards to 3.86% from 3.83% a fortnight ago; for the core component, it was kept at 3.80%, unchanged from the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.75%, two basis points higher from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations remained stable for both years. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 was kept at 1.4% from the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.9% to 1.7%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.1%.

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