Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (September 4, 2026)

• Consensus continues to foresee no near-term change in Banxico policy rate. In today's Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, of the 37 respondents, 25 expect no movement in the monetary policy rate, while 12 anticipate a rate adjustment. Among those expecting a change, 6 participants expect the next adjustment to be a hike and 6 expect it to be a cut further ahead. The median forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 6.75%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is also 6.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.75% to 7.25%. 
• Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.50 by end-2026, from 17.68 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 18.75. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.07, from 18.24 a fortnight ago, with expectations ranging from 17.40 to 19.10.
• For August, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.25% and 0.20%, respectively. For the full August, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.25% MoM, or 3.31%, lower than the figure from the previous month of 3.95%YoY and lower than a fortnight ago at 0.28% MoM. Core inflation declined to 0.20% MoM in August, or 3.93%YoY, from 0.25% MoM in the last survey and marginally lower than the figure from the previous month of 3.95%YoY. For September, consensus expects monthly headline and core inflation at 0.39% MoM and 0.32% MoM, respectively. 
• Inflation projections are broadly stable. The median projection for headline inflation for year-end 2026 is at 4.00%, unchanged from a fortnight ago; for the core component, the median was kept at 4.00% from the last survey. For year-end 2027, the headline inflation expectation was kept at 3.80%; for the core component, it remained at 3.80%, as in the last survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2028–32 is at 3.75%, 2 basis points higher from the previous survey.
• GDP growth expectations increased marginally for this year. The median GDP growth projection for 2026 rose to 1.3% from 1.2% in the last survey, with the range of estimates going from 0.6% to 1.5%. For 2027, survey respondents expect GDP growth to be at 1.8%, as in the previous survey, with the range of estimates going from 1.0% to 2.3%.

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