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Research @ CitiPodcast05 Jun 2024

E3: Is the U.S. Housing Market Broken?

The current state of the U.S. housing market can be traced back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The ensuing retreat of builders and lenders resulted in housing starts trending below a pre-GFC average that had persisted for several decades — in an America with a much smaller population. Then the pandemic hit, which stimulated substantial demand as Americans worked and schooled from home and moved to different parts of the country. On the supply side, a shortage of building products and labor put the brakes on construction. Fast forward to 2024, and current benchmark mortgage rates mean that many homeowners locked in at lower rates are not keen to sell. All of this adds up to a housing market where affordability is near all-time lows. But is the U.S. housing market actually broken?

Join Citi’s Rob Rowe, Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group and U.S. Regional Director of Research, and Anthony Pettinari, U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst, as they tackle this critical question, not only from an economic standpoint but also from the perspective of demographics, geography, and even the tail risks around insurance rates amid climate change. 

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Rob Rowe is Head of the Global Strategy and Macro Group (GSMG) as well as the U.S. Regional Director of Research. GSMG unites all of Citi's economists with fixed income, FX, equity and commodities strategists to create a common team providing research on the world's major economies and asset classes. Rob has been with Citi for 30 years serving in various capacities. He originally joined Smith Barney Harris Upham & Company in 1989, working in investment banking, fixed income sales and research.  In addition to his managerial responsibilities, he continues to provide portfolio strategy for select clients as part of his previous role overseeing the Global Bond Portfolio Analysis team. He has written numerous articles and publications on fixed income and portfolio strategy.

image of Rob Rowe  

Anthony Pettinari is the U.S. Packaging, Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst for Citi Research. Prior to joining Citi in 2006, Anthony was a management consultant, holding roles at Deloitte Consulting and Merck & Co. Prior to launching coverage on the Packaging sector in 2010, he was a member of Citi’s #1 Institutional Investor–ranked Chemicals research team.

Anthony has been recognized by the Institutional Investor All-America Research survey every year since 2016. In 2023, he was recognized by TipRanks as one of the top 10 Consumer Goods sector analysts of the past decade.

Anthony received his Master’s degree from Columbia University and his Bachelor's degree from the University of Washington.

image of Anthony Pettinari  

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