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Article08 Nov 2023

Global Economy: Resilience in the Face of Growth Concerns

A recent report from Citi’s global chief economist Nathan Sheets looks at the prospects for the global economy next year, when monetary policy is likely to dent growth but inflation looks likely to push back to target levels.

Citi economists see growth slowing next year as restrictive monetary policy increasingly bites. But the combination of slower growth and tighter policy should finally push inflation back to target, they say.

That prediction of slower growth next year stands in contrast to recent weeks when Citi Research analysts have revised their forecasts for the U.S. and China and currently expect growth in both countries to be stronger than previously forecast for this year.

Their projection for global growth this year now stands at 2.5%, up from 2.3% in September and more than half a percentage point higher than anticipated when the year began—a performance that, while “hardly gangbusters,” has been an upside surprise.

Evolution of Citi Global Growth Forecast

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