NEW YORK – Today, Citi Global Wealth released its full-year Wealth Outlook for 2024 - Slow then grow: Investing in the markets’ big reset. The report offers a detailed analysis of the global economy, markets and geopolitics for the year ahead.
Though the U.S. economy is likely to slow in early 2024, Citi Global Wealth believes that markets will focus on faster growth in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. This growth will be reflected in corporate earnings in 2024 (+4%) and 2025 (+8%) and will benefit the broader stock market.
Citi Global Wealth is also forecasting a low likelihood of a recession in 2024 and predicts that “rolling recessions” in certain industries and sectors will fade in 2024 as markets for goods and services normalize.
“Markets lead economies,” said David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer at Citi Global Wealth. “The ‘big reset’ reflects our view that higher strategic returns will be available over the decade and for many investors, may prove to be a time when fully invested, diversified core portfolios can capture market results across equities and bonds.”
The “big reset” will occur in a synchronous manner in both equity and bond markets. Investors should avoid sitting on the sidelines waiting for a signal to re-invest which is unlikely to occur.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve perhaps done hiking interest rates, Citi Global Wealth also suggests locking in potentially higher yields on bonds now. With bond yields materially higher than they were just two years ago, intermediate bonds may add more value to portfolios than cash over the years to come. The Federal Reserve will likely lower short-term interest rates as inflation eases to prevent a higher unemployment rate.
“We believe in balanced, “core” portfolios,” said Steven Wieting, Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist at Citi Global Wealth. “We have also outlined some opportunistic strategies that include undervalued assets and areas where a catalyst for growth or change in market conditions exist. These include investments related to our long-term unstoppable trends, including longevity and the impact of artificial intelligence.”
For the first time, the Full-Year Outlook includes Citi Global Wealth’s top 10 opportunistic investment ideas:
See Citi Global Wealth’s Outlook report for full details.
Citi is a preeminent banking partner for institutions with cross-border needs, a global leader in wealth management and a valued personal bank in its home market of the United States. Citi does business in nearly 160 countries and jurisdictions, providing corporations, governments, investors, institutions and individuals with a broad range of financial products and services.
Jamie Letica: Jamie.email@example.com